The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of how asking prices and rents are trending nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and therefore show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Because asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. With that, here’s the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.
Asking Prices Jump Nationally in September, but Price Slowdown Continues
Asking home prices increased 2.0% month-over-month in September. However, the quarter-over-quarter increase – which is less jumpy – was 3.0% in September, the smallest gain since February. Although monthly price changes remain volatile, the overall trend shows that price gains are slowing down, despite the fact asking prices were up 11.5% year-over-year – the largest increase since the housing crash.
How can there be a slowdown if year-over-year prices are hitting new highs? Because the year-over-year changes are averages over the previous 12 months, and the recent price slowdown hasn’t been underway for long enough to start bringing down the year-over-year changes.
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September 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary |
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|
% change in asking prices |
# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases |
% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures |
|
| Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted |
2.0% |
Not reported |
2.0% |
| Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted |
3.0% |
89 |
3.1% |
| Year-over-year |
11.5% |
97 |
11.5% |
| *Month-over-month change is September versus August. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data. | |||
Asking Prices Declining in Several Florida Metros, Slowing Down in California
In September, 89 of the 100 largest metros had quarter-over-quarter price increases. That’s down from 93 in August, 96 in July, and 97 in June. The 11 metros where prices fell quarter-over-quarter include three in Florida and two in upstate New York. In most of these markets, prices had been rising before the most recent quarter, so their year-over-year change is still positive. Also, keep in mind that the trend in asking prices over the past quarter – that is, July to September – should affect sales prices from September to November, which won’t be fully reflected in the major sales-price indexes until their January 2014 releases. So you heard it here first.
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The 11 Metros Where Asking Prices Fell Quarter-over-Quarter |
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| # | U.S. Metro |
Q-o-Q % change, September 2013 |
Y-o-Y % change, September 2013 |
| 1 | West Palm Beach, FL |
-4.6% |
5.2% |
| 2 | Albany, NY |
-2.2% |
-0.7% |
| 3 | Miami, FL |
-1.5% |
9.8% |
| 4 | Honolulu, HI |
-1.5% |
1.7% |
| 5 | Syracuse, NY |
-0.9% |
4.6% |
| 6 | Little Rock, AR |
-0.5% |
-0.7% |
| 7 | Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL |
-0.5% |
12.7% |
| 8 | El Paso, TX |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
| 9 | Allentown, PA-NJ |
-0.1% |
1.8% |
| 10 | Albuquerque, NM |
-0.1% |
3.4% |
| 11 | Akron, OH |
-0.02% |
2.3% |
In addition to the 11 metros where asking prices are actually declining, price slowdowns have become widespread. (Driving is a good analogy for explaining the difference between price declines and price slowdowns: price declines are like putting a car into reverse, while price slowdowns are like tapping the brakes but still moving forward.) Remember: the way we spot a price slowdown is by looking at the quarter-over-quarter change – it’s less volatile then a monthly change but less smoothed out than a yearly change.
Among the 100 largest metros, 68 had slower quarter-over-quarter price changes than three months earlier, in June. Sacramento, Oakland, Orange County, and Los Angeles all had price slowdowns of 2% or more, even though prices in those metros are still up more than 20% year-over-year. Atlanta is the only metro where prices are up at least 20% year-over-year and the quarter-over-quarter price change is accelerating by more than 1%.
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Recent Price Changes in the 20 Hottest Markets |
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| # | U.S. Metro |
Y-o-Y % change, September 2013 |
Q-o-Q % change, September 2013 |
Q-o-Q % change, June 2013 |
Price slowdown = Difference in Q-o-Q % change, September minus June |
| 1 | Las Vegas, NV |
34.4% |
7.1% |
7.6% |
-0.5% |
| 2 | Sacramento, CA |
33.6% |
4.4% |
8.6% |
-4.2% |
| 3 | Oakland, CA |
29.2% |
3.2% |
11.1% |
-8.0% |
| 4 | Riverside–San Bernardino, CA |
26.9% |
6.5% |
6.9% |
-0.4% |
| 5 | Orange County, CA |
24.4% |
4.2% |
6.8% |
-2.6% |
| 6 | Bakersfield, CA |
24.4% |
4.1% |
6.0% |
-1.8% |
| 7 | Los Angeles, CA |
23.7% |
4.3% |
7.3% |
-3.0% |
| 8 | Detroit, MI |
23.5% |
6.9% |
8.7% |
-1.8% |
| 9 | Warren–Troy–Farmington Hills, MI |
23.4% |
6.2% |
7.5% |
-1.3% |
| 10 | San Jose, CA |
21.2% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
0.0% |
| 11 | Atlanta, GA |
21.2% |
5.8% |
3.5% |
2.3% |
| 12 | San Diego, CA |
21.0% |
4.7% |
5.9% |
-1.2% |
| 13 | Phoenix, AZ |
20.9% |
3.7% |
4.7% |
-1.0% |
| 14 | Ventura County, CA |
20.8% |
4.4% |
5.2% |
-0.7% |
| 15 | Fresno, CA |
20.8% |
5.4% |
5.0% |
0.4% |
| 16 | Orlando, FL |
19.1% |
4.9% |
5.5% |
-0.6% |
| 17 | Portland, OR-WA |
17.9% |
3.0% |
4.0% |
-1.0% |
| 18 | San Francisco, CA |
17.3% |
3.0% |
5.1% |
-2.1% |
| 19 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
16.7% |
2.8% |
4.9% |
-2.1% |
| 20 | Grand Rapids, MI |
15.8% |
2.5% |
3.9% |
-1.4% |
| * The final column equals the difference between the third and second data columns, but the numbers might not appear to add up due to rounding. To download the list of price changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF. | |||||
Rents Up 3.0%, Rising More Slowly Than Three Months Ago
It’s not just asking prices that are slowing down, rents are too. In September, rents rose 3.0% year-over-year nationally, down from 3.9% year-over-year in June. Among the 25 largest rental markets, 18 had slower rent increases in September than in June. These cooling markets include Seattle, Denver, and Houston. On the flip side, rents rose faster in September than in June in Portland, San Diego, Phoenix, and several other metros.
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Rent Changes in 25 Largest Rental Markets |
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| # | U.S. Metro |
Y-o-Y % change, September 2013 |
Y-o-Y % change, June 2013 |
Difference in Y-o-Y % change, September minus June |
| 1 | Portland, OR-WA |
9.2% |
7.9% |
1.3% |
| 2 | Seattle, WA |
8.8% |
11.5% |
-2.7% |
| 3 | San Francisco, CA |
8.1% |
7.9% |
0.3% |
| 4 | Miami, FL |
7.3% |
6.9% |
0.3% |
| 5 | San Diego, CA |
6.7% |
3.7% |
2.9% |
| 6 | Denver, CO |
5.5% |
7.0% |
-1.5% |
| 7 | Orange County, CA |
4.5% |
4.1% |
0.5% |
| 8 | Houston, TX |
4.5% |
9.5% |
-5.0% |
| 9 | Dallas, TX |
4.3% |
4.3% |
0.0% |
| 10 | Phoenix, AZ |
4.0% |
2.9% |
1.1% |
| 11 | Oakland, CA |
3.7% |
6.2% |
-2.5% |
| 12 | Riverside–San Bernardino, CA |
3.4% |
4.6% |
-1.1% |
| 13 | Baltimore, MD |
3.4% |
4.6% |
-1.3% |
| 14 | Los Angeles, CA |
3.2% |
4.7% |
-1.5% |
| 15 | Boston, MA |
3.0% |
3.2% |
-0.2% |
| 16 | St. Louis, MO-IL |
2.6% |
3.3% |
-0.7% |
| 17 | New York, NY-NJ |
2.6% |
4.1% |
-1.5% |
| 18 | Chicago, IL |
2.5% |
3.4% |
-1.0% |
| 19 | Tampa–St. Petersburg, FL |
2.3% |
5.2% |
-2.9% |
| 20 | Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN-WI |
1.9% |
1.0% |
0.9% |
| 21 | Atlanta, GA |
1.9% |
2.2% |
-0.4% |
| 22 | Las Vegas, NV |
1.7% |
1.8% |
-0.1% |
| 23 | Philadelphia, PA |
-1.1% |
1.3% |
-2.3% |
| 24 | Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV |
-1.2% |
0.3% |
-1.5% |
| 25 | Sacramento, CA |
-1.5% |
-0.8% |
-0.7% |
| To download the list of rent changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF. | ||||
The next Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor will be released on Tuesday, November 5, at 10 AM ET.
How did we put this report together? To recap the methodology, the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor track asking home prices and rents on a monthly basis, adjusting for the changing composition of listed homes, including foreclosures provided by RealtyTrac. The Trulia Price Monitor also accounts for the regular seasonal fluctuations in asking prices in order to reveal the underlying trend in prices. The Monitors can detect price movements at least three months before the major sales-price indexes do. Historical data are sometimes revised each month, and historical data in the current release are the best comparison with current data. Our FAQs provide all the technical details.
