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Commentary & Analysis

Existing Home Sales Fall Slightly in April, Blame Inventory

By bonnie | May 24, 2017
The share of inventory that sells has climbed to 25%
  • Though April’s existing home sales numbers fell back from March, the long-run story is looking good. Sales are now about 95% of their pre-recession peak, but this is down from 97% in March.
  • Though they’re nearly back to normal, existing sales have been slow to come back because of persistent low inventory, and April continues the trend. The number of homes on the market fell yet again, dropping another 8.7% from last year.
  • How are home sales trending up despite falling inventory? Simply put, homebuyers are gobbling up inventory at a much higher rate than in the past. The most recent numbers show that the share of inventory that sells has climbed to 25%. This is the largest share since 2005 and the third most on record.

Existing home sales fell 2.3% in April, but they’re still about 95% back to their pre-recession peak. This down from 97% in March. However, when adjusting for the fact that there are more households in the U.S., April’s numbers are about 85% back to normal, down from 87% last month.

Though they’re nearly back to normal, existing sales have been slow to come back because of persistent low inventory. The number of homes on the market fell yet again in April, dropping 8.7% year-over-year. How is it that home sales have grown strongly since the end of the recession while inventory has fallen? Simply, a higher share of homes on the market sell. In March (the latest available month for seasonally adjusted inventory), the share of inventory that sold climb to 25%. This is the highest since 2005 and the third most on record. Homebuyers, clearly stymied by low inventory, are gobbling up inventory at a much higher rate than in the past.