Will any form of health care pass in 2010?
It's anyone's guess, but I'd guess yes. Not a broad, all-encompassing bill, but bits and pieces that Democrats and Republicans can agree on. Maybe things like malpractice reform. Or limits on insurers cancelling policies for current illnesses or preexisting conditions. I think insurers are giving bankers a run for their money as the most disliked business group in America.
Will health care reform (as passed) help or harm our economy?
Not much of either. It'll help slightly. But it won't have much of an impact for a number of reasons. First, it'll be smaller, incremental steps. Second, the major drivers of the economy aren't focused around health care. The major drivers involve things like government borrowing and how money is injected into the economy. Or government borrowing and its international implications. (Or reliance on China, for example. Or what happens when the financial sector internationally loses faith in a country's ability to repay. Look at what's happening with Greece right now.)
Even in the health care area, those reforms won't have much of a macro effect. Sure, it'll help individuals (if done properly). But the huge costs in health care come from things like Medicare and Medicaid. And that's not going to be addressed in any substantive fashion with new health care legislation. In fact, most of the systemic problems weren't even addressed by the Obama plan.
I think the decision's already been made to concentrate more on the economy and worry about health care once people believe the economy has been effectively addressed.