Market Conditions in Dublin>Question Details

Rouriel Noub…, Both Buyer and Seller in San Ramon, CA

Market condition in San Ramon's neighbor city Dublin

Asked by Rouriel Noubini, San Ramon, CA Wed Jul 2, 2008

Dublin's house market is crumbling fast, very very fast. Look at this property:…

Its current listing price is about half of its peak in 2006 ($1.5mil vs. $800k) . Is San Ramon not far behind?

Help the community by answering this question:


RE KyuuKetsuKi:

Prices have dropped, but not as much as this price would indicate. This is a short sale and is priced drastically under the market to attract buyers. The lowest price per square foot sale in the development in the past few months was $232/ft, followed by $241/ft and $242/ft. Those are the numbers a bank will be looking at when they do a BPO – they will more than likely counter the price back up to close to market level. There are a few actives at lower prices per sq. ft., but none as low as the property you mention, which is currently at $206 sq. ft. There are also a few active REOs in the neighborhood, but their prices are not as low. If the subject house were evaluated based upon past sales, and using the sq. ft. numbers, its’ true price would be somewhere in the range of a minimum of $900,000.

Remember two things: (1) typically, the larger the home, the lower the price per sq. ft. You should not use larger home sq. ft. prices to validate prices on smaller homes. (2) Price per sq. ft. is only a ballpark way of doing comps – to get a truly accurate price, you have to factor in amenities, condition, location, etc.

So … the market has not dropped that low as of yet. One very low short sale asking price does not a market make. As for San Ramon, the same factors apply.
Web Reference:
2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
I would say aroung $729-740 but it looks like we have a downward trend. Have you looked at the stock market lately? I thinkl if the tech industry is hit then we can see 15-20 more decline. In this case I would wait. I rather buy in an uptrend. I donot think anyone can pick the bottom.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 3, 2008
If you have to purchase a house now, I may hire a agent. Now, I can wait. Without a agent, I still can low ball on REO/short sales, plus get 3% credit back for buy agent fee. I am very patient now. I can wait for 6 months or 12 monts.

For this one, I will low ball at $750k. It will be $730k after 3% credit back. With this price, it will provide some cushion for further 5%-10% market deterioration. If the same house sold below $600k, that will be really really surprise me. If the expected does happen, who will pay 2x or even 3x for houses in Pleasanton, in Fremont, in Santa clara, in San Jose, in Cupertino. Shorter commute time and better school won't adjust for the price difference.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 3, 2008
It's not that simple ... some REOs have been on the market for a very long time because the bank is not willing to take that much of a loss. You need a top-notch Realtor to represent you - one who has worked with many buyers on securing REOs. We'd love to help.
Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 3, 2008
Then you can try lowballing it at $730k. If there is no other offer, bank can not wait forever.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 3, 2008
Hi RE KyuuKetsuKi,

The price per square foot numbers Mr. Carl Medford presented seem fair for today's market, but it is anyone's guess if we've hit bottom, given how quickly food and fuel cost have risen. Like Windemere in San Ramon, Dublin's new home construction has slowed compared to the fevered pace back in 2005, but you can definitely count on more inventory down the road for both cities. In Dublin, there will be Moller Ranch, Wallis Ranch, Fallon Village, and Schaeffer Ranch just to name a few. What those new homes will do to existing home values is anyone's guess. I highly recommend the Around Dublin Blog ( for the most up-to-date information about Dublin and our various projects. According to this blog, there are two major retail centers that are slated to come online over the next two years. One is along the Grafton Street, and the other, which will have Whole Foods Market as an anchor, is in the empty lot to the South of Sybase. East Dubin is centrally located and beautifully landscaped. If you and your family are looking for convenience, Dublin should definitely be in your consideration.

Of course, the school district is another major factor when it comes to one's home purchase. East Dublin has a fantastic middle school and a few great elementary schools, but we are far away from the high school. Please check out a comment from Dublin School Board member Jennifer Henry on a blog post referenced below. Basically, you know Dublin school district is in trouble when after all the data slicing and dicing, our high school gets what essentially amounts to a C+ compared to neighboring high schools. Dublin High School is also overcrowded, as there is only one high school that serves a population of 40,000. Cities of similar size have at least two high schools. If you buy in East Dublin, you will have to spend almost half an hour each way driving your kids to and from the high school. Finally, Dublin School District is planning to raise the parcel tax by $99 to cover a huge budget shortfall due their mismanagement of public funds. If you have kids at high school age or nearing high school age, I would recommend the Windemere homes in San Ramon at this time; however, if your kids are still in elementary school, I would recommend Dublin for the overall value. After all, the school system can be improved, but you cannot relocate Windemere to be closer to the highway. Good luck.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
Donald, do you think $800k for this one is a deal? If not, how much you are willing to pay for it?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
I agree the prices are dropping and more so in San Ramon. This house was on the market for a day in april for 800K and the sale did not go through. so its back!

Have you followed the stock market lately? The tech industry outlook is not looking good and the entire valley will see a price pressure (except some areas)...

I will wait :)
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
Sorry, wrong link. This is the correct one:…
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
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