Home Buying in Zion>Question Details

Gamal, Other/Just Looking in Evanston, IL

how long will the housing market value will go down from now on?

Asked by Gamal, Evanston, IL Wed Jul 2, 2008

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Interesting question! I believe we will be in a downslide for another year at minimum. Things should start looking up by early 2010. Most of my Lake County properties have gone down approximately 12% since their high (in other words, house prices are about the same as they were in 2003/2004). Looks like houses in good shape and priced correctly take at least 6-8 months to sell. I you want to buy, I would wait a bit still. Another factor that will help houses increase will be the demise of the builder. Many builders have gone under, with larger builders downsizing considerably - purely supply and demand. Too much speculation and greed got us where we are today.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 18, 2008
probably when demand for homes out paces the available supply
2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
I like Illinois, they're pretty tough on deadbeats, you can walk but you can't hide, but that probably decreases the number of buyers. I think the market wll go down until 2012. That's my opinion, everyone has one. The realtors' opinions may differ. For some reason, the realtors don't like low house prices. It may have to do with the commission payment structure they use.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Tue Aug 12, 2008
I believe foreclosure's will continue at least into 2010 since they did not stop giving Liars Loans until sometime in 2007 if you also consider the fact that many homeowners with traditional mortgages are starting to have problems in record numbers and many more will be falling into default with the rising gas, heating costs, soaring food prices, etc. you can expect the prices to continue to fall I would guess another 10-15% depending upon the area. In other words we haven't seen the bottom yet and it typically takes years after the bottom for a recovery. This has happened before in the 80's we could not have sold our home for what we paid for it luckily we learned a lesson held onto it until shortly before the collapse began sold it and rented.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
I think you are asking if the market has found its bottom or if prices will continue to slide down. As more reo's (banked owned properties) sell they will make average prices trend down without a doubt. The one wrinkle is that these homes represent a very unique part of the market and typically need much work done. As a result many buyers either will not or cannot purchase homes in disrepair. It is almost like we should have 3 sets of average prices, 1) Average price for REO's 2) Average price for New Construction 3) Average price for resale homes.
In most of the markets I am in, resale home prices have steady or slightly sluggish so far this year while builders are struggling a bit more. And of cource REO's are low and will continue to remain low for the foreseeable future.
Web Reference: http://www.JPMackey.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 2, 2008
Foreclosure Rates Continue Rising and Housing Prices Continue Falling

NEW YORK, July 10 /PRNewswire/ -- ForeclosureDataOnline.com reports more dark days ahead for the housing market and for homeowners concerned about losing their homes. The data collected by the site shows that foreclosure levels continue to rise and are reaching record highs, particularly in states such as Michigan, California, and Florida.

The Mortgage Bankers Association released the National Delinquency Survey last week. The survey reported that the increase in foreclosure rates between quarters has reached its highest point since 1972 when the records were first kept. The increase in foreclosures on first time mortgages increased by 36% between the first quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009. Foreclosure rates have also increased in many major cities around the country, including Dallas (7.75%), Fort Worth (6.16%), Detroit (4%), and Cleveland (3%). Throughout the country, more than 600,000 mortgages have been affected by foreclosure actions.

In related news, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were given authorization by the Federal Housing Finance Agency to refinance mortgages through the Home Affordable Refinance Program for properties that are now worth a great deal less than what is owed on the property. The difference between value and outstanding debt can now be as high as 25% even though the program was originally only for homes valued at 5% less than their outstanding mortgage debt.

This change in policy comes at a time when home prices have plummeted. According to ForeclosureDatonline.com, nationally, prices have fallen by one-third since 2006. In key cities, prices have dropped significantly in just the last month: Chicago (1.8%), Atlanta (less than 1%), Houston (less than 1%), and Denver (3.7%).

While the change may provide some temporary relief for homeowners, the continuing economic problems facing the country, such as the 9.5% unemployment rate, may lead millions of foreclosures over the next 4 or 5 years.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jul 11, 2009
I am a younger investors so I cant give an answer, but I can definitely tell you my game of choice when it comes to the gamble of buying or not.

I think if we havent hit the bottom, then we are near it. One large factor I base this on is the % change month to month on foreclosures and national, state, and local levels. This is easily attainable public information. The process of foreclosures and how long it takes for such homes to then be transfered to new owners after banks assume them, I believe that once we start seeing a 0% or positive percent change, you would be wise to add another 12 to 18 months on that before saying that the worst has come and gone.

I think that buying this winter will present better deals that buying next winter, but that is strictly with my mindset of buying short sale and bank owned property.

I know that is not a direct answer, but hopefully you see that as a way to come to your own conclusions.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Dec 4, 2008
Any of the naysayers care to comment on this recent news article?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Aug 12, 2008
I deal quite a bit with foreclosures, and I believe we are at the bottom line pricing level right now! I have now had several properties that not only had multiple offers but also went over list price. That was a very good sign for me. As always, priced right and it will sell! We then need to get thru the election, and as soon as next year hits we will be at the start of a normal increase in value. No not the 8-10 percent we were seeing, but a normal 3-5% to start. By spring 2009 the real estate market will be back in the swing of things. So yes, buy now or you will be paying more. Keep in mind if you are buying low, you are selling low and vice versa. So the ones to gain here are the first time homebuyers and investors.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Aug 11, 2008
This last Sunday the Chicago Tribune and the MSNBC Mad Money star-Kramer-said buyers should buy within the next 6 months and get the best deals. To me this means we are near the bottom and will go in the opposite direction soon. Lately my sales have quadrupled and I have about 5 homes under contract.
Web Reference: http://www.realtybob.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Aug 5, 2008
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