What If the market is going down 1% Per Month, or 2% or 3%?. Going back in Time to get a sale when the market is going down, requires a Time Adjustment by the appraiser to bring the old sales prices down to where the market is today. Discounting a Listing is appriopriate, the only question is how much.
The opposite is true when the market is going up. Is your market going up or down?
Look at the number of Listings over $1m and the number of Sales in the last month, two, three, four, five and six month period. What is the average number of Sales, and what is the current Inventory? It might be that there is an Over Supply.
The upper end market segment may have held better than the lower levels. The lower levels started declining in March, 2006 in Redlands. In Feb. I gave a presentation at the Library to a group that was interested in the future of real estate price trends, and predicted a 25%-50% drop in prices. The reaction by the press was negative, because there had been no measurable declines, and none of the nationally quoted real estate writers has mentioned it. The rest is history.
Post Madoff, high end buyers became fewer. Prices at the high end began to soften in 2009. Now, there is an over supply as more hang on the market and do not sell. Selling at any price today, may be much better than not selling at all in the next year..