what is the prognosis for the Phoenix market? Going up...or down? And how many months supply are there?

Asked by Buyer, Canada, KY Fri Jan 11, 2008

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Paul Welden, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Sun Jun 1, 2008
The prognosis for the Phoenix market is good for buyers but not so good for sellers. I think the market in Phoenix will continue to benefit buyers for at least 1-2 more years, until the number of homes for sale drops from 55,000 to closer to 25,000.

The market is both going up & down...I'll explain. Last month, I helped a buyer purchase a home for $120K that was last sold for $260K. So, prices are coming down. However, all other homes of similar size, in similar location with similar amenities are now going for $130K+. So, prices are going up as well, but each city is different & has different stats & more specifically, each neighborhood is different. It also depends on where you want to buy and what you want to buy.

As of 930am 6/1/08, there are 54529 properties for sale in the Phoenix MLS. Last month, 5607 properties in the Phoenix MLS sold. This means that it could take 9-10 months to sell all the homes on the market.

I hope my information will help you to make good real estate decisions.

Paul Welden
Web Reference:  http://CheapPhoenixHomes.com
2 votes
Rbos, , Phoenix, AZ
Thu Dec 16, 2010
my goodness, you agents must have had your heads up your butts...look how many people thought 2008 was a good time to buy! f*ing idiots!
1 vote
Mike Johnson, , Phoenix, AZ
Tue Jun 17, 2008
Why do the realtors here conventiently leave out the ridiculous number of foreclosures in the phoenix metro area when stating these #'s? When the # of monthly foreclosures are close to and sometimes surpassing the # of homes sold, this train of emails from realtors is comical.
1 vote
Jerry Murphy, Agent, Anthem, AZ
Sat May 31, 2008
It's good that you're asking people who are on the front lines of the real estate market. The news media would have you believe things are bleak everywhere. Here in Phoenix we have seen a significant uptick in activity over the last several months. Inventory is starting to decline, currently at about 12-14 months supply compared to about 20-22 months supply a year ago. Prices have declined to a point where first time home buyers and investors are coming back into the market. Don't wait until you hear on the news that it's safe to jump back in the water. By that time it will be too late, all the good deals will be gone.

And to answer the question of where to go on the internet to find the best deals out there, there's not one best site. You have to establish a relationship with a good realtor who will do the research for you. What may be a great deal in one area is not a great deal in another. And no one has the time and resources to comb every area and analyze each and every home to determine which are the best deals.
1 vote
Arlene Sandl…, , 33601
Thu May 29, 2008
Hi, I have been looking to buy in the Phoenix area for about a year, and have been watching the prices go down, down, down. Presently I live in NYC, where the prices have been going up, not quite the percentage of the past few years, but still at about 6-8% the last 4 quarters. I am a real estate broker in NYC, so I do have knowledge of the various markets. From everything that I read, and heard, the Phoenix area overbuilt b/c builders/developers thought that the bubble would continue to expand. I think that sellers are presently still trying to recoup much of their profit, and they are just going to have to lower their prices. It is not the time to make that big profit, it's not the time to be greedy.

I read a study that was written recently by an economist at Yale U., it was very interesting. They talked about the price of rentals in relation to home sales. They said that until rentals and sales come in line with each other, that sales will continue to going down nationally. And, they predicted that it will take at least another 3 or so years for this to happen, especially in area like Phoenix, Vegas, etc.
1 vote
Deborah Phil…, , Phoenix, AZ
Wed Apr 2, 2008
The Realtors Association has stated that we now have 9.6 months supply in housing. My experience has been that the numbers can change in a matter of months. The amount of foreclosures and short sales seem to come in waves and can increase the supply of homes significantly. It is a fantastic time to buy! Don't eliminate resale homes verses new builds. You can get incredible buys in resale and some have fantastic upgrades which are usually optional with new builds.
1 vote
Maureen Thel…, Agent, Phoenix, AZ
Tue Aug 18, 2009
The Phoenix market has changed significantly in 2009 and is now kind of a "split personality" that depends entirely on the price range and location of the property in question.

It's still abuyer's market for the highest priced properties, which are often listed way above current market, and the huge inventory of multi-million dollar homes provides enough supply for years to come.

It's a very different picture in the under $250,000 neighborhoods, where the inventory is in the 1 to 4 month area now, making it a seller's market. The competition is especially fierce in the under $125,000 price range where first time buyers and second home buyers once again have to compete with the investors.

Homes built in the last 10 years that are priced at 1/3 to 1/2 off their prior sale price, especially those now listed in the $85,000 to $125,000 range, are a very hot commodity that disappears quickly. The Bank-owned homes more often tha not get a dozen or more offers within a week of being listed, so the REO inventory in some areas has declined so sharply that buyer must either turn to the short sales or step away from the table. Prices have bottomed in many neighborhoods, including the close-in areas like South Mountain and Laveen.

Buyers need to be fully pre-approved and mentally ready to make the offer (over list price in the under $150,000 market especially!) as soon as a property meeting their requirements comes on the market.
0 votes
Paul Welden, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Sat Jul 25, 2009
Currently there are ~32,000 homes for sale in the Phoenix MLS and out of those ~32,000, only ~4,700 are bank owned foreclosures....a mere 15%. Compared to last year where there were ~60,000 homes for sale and 45,000 of those were bank owned foreclosures. The number have been drastically reduced. While now may be an excellent time to buy, there are more foreclosures coming, escpecially with 8,000-9,000 homes each month being foreclosed on since February 1, 2009. They are not over yet, but currently the supply is low and the demand is high.

Buyer's Agent Realtor
Web Reference:  http://CheapPhoenixHomes.com
0 votes
Arlene Sandl…, , 33601
Sat Jul 25, 2009
I have read many articles regarding home sales in the Phoenix area that are being, and have been bought up by investors.....another greedy bunch. They buy with cash, which eliminates families that have to get a mortgage, and they bid/offer low, and get them. The banks want to get rid of these foreclosures, and when they can get cash, they will take that over a mortgage any day. What these investors plan to do is hold the homes, and sell them when the market begins to pick up. They will probably inflate the prices at that time, pushing prices up......oh what a greedy bunch!! That's exactly what caused this economy, the greed, and most of that came from the mortgage market.

I am sure that there will be even more foreclosures since the banks are not lending like they used to for mortgages, and are now requiring a lot more of a down payment. I have been watching the Phoenix market since I am still trying to sell my condo in Manhattan, NYC, where the market has gone down anywhere from 20-40%. I have not been seeing prices going up, but have and continue to see them coming down. And, when they hit a ridiculous price level they are gone. So, yes it is a good time to buy, but you had better hurry, cash in hand if you want that foreclosed house before those greedy investors get there first!
0 votes
Lisa Lucky, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Wed Jun 10, 2009
You know what they say: location, location, location. Each area is affected differently by changes in the economy. The past 5 years approx 70% of our home sales were cash deals. We focus on North Scottsdale. Check out this North Scottsdale resource (link):
Web Reference:  http://lisalucky.com
0 votes
Sean Tackett, , Goodyear, AZ
Tue Jun 10, 2008
Things seem to be picking up. The last 3-4 months have seen a steady incline in business.
Right now is a great time to be a buyer, you can be very selective with not only the house, but the terms of the sale. Sellers may be losing money, but for the seller who is looking to move up, they will surely make up for what they've lost in a short amount of time so in this instance, it's not a bad time to be a seller. I feel right now is the perfect time to make an investment in real estate.
0 votes
Chris Davis, , Phoenix, AZ
Tue Jun 3, 2008
the supply has continued to drop as we are closer to a 10 month supply, the REO's are getting multiple offers, so I would expect the bottom has come
Web Reference:  http://cdavisazloans.com
0 votes
Mlt, Home Seller, Scottsdale, AZ
Sat May 31, 2008
Now is a great time to buy in Arizona. Interest rates are probably at their lowest & home prices aggressive. Predictions are that the inventory particularly in NE Scottsdale will level off in a few months. There are already signs of upward swings in certain areas. Bring your loonies. We love Canadians! I have a lovely home that is a destination for our Canadian friends. Will sell or lease long term or short term.
0 votes
Barry Cox, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Wed May 28, 2008
Great question. I don't have the numbers for you, but we are so busy with the homes that are priced right. I think everyone has been watching the news and seen that interest rates are near their lows, and prices are near the bottom as well.

Good luck on the home search!
0 votes
Don Reynolds, , 85239
Sat Apr 26, 2008
As a lender, we are doing a lot of FHA and VA loans, so it is still possible to get the financing. However, If you are working with a lender who does not do FHA or VA loans, it is really tough to get financing unless you are putting a significant amount down and have great credit. Sub prime loans are almost non-existent. I have met many really nice people from Canada buying here now. Good luck and welcome to AZ!
0 votes
Hi, , Virginia
Wed Apr 2, 2008
cold in canada
warm in phoenix
save your loonies
is it true that canada is going to have a crisis soon
similar to the usa


good luck
0 votes
John Lewis, Both Buyer And Seller, Scottsdale, AZ
Sun Jan 20, 2008
The supply may be 12 to 16 months, my calculations say 20 months easy as lending standards are tight lengthy and inviting if you have “A” paper credit.. If you are investing settle in on a mortgage number that best fits your income level and cash flow situation. Select target property carefully as the cities traffic congestion and sprawling spread out character will impact your ability to consistently reap an upside or live comfortably without the lengthy drive time.
0 votes
David Baker, Agent, Phoenix, AZ
Mon Jan 14, 2008
As others have said inventories are over the 12 month mark, but do vary depending on area and price range as well. No one really has the crystal ball to predict how much further we have till it bottoms out. I believe we have not yet hit the bottom, but should some time in the next 6 months. We will probably have a period of leveling off before any appreciation is seen again. Probably 3 years before appreciation is seen.
0 votes
Dirk Knudsen…, Agent, Hillsboro, OR
Sat Jan 12, 2008
I have been looking there myself. Does anybody have the definitive site for finding the best deals? I have surfed Craigs List and a Variety of Broker Sites and have been left wanting.

I found a Builder that offered to sell me 3980 SF with lot for $186K New. He said there would be some upgrades to get some nicer finishes but so what. That is an insane value. This is a big Metro area with jobs and people and Sunshine. I would have to assume that prices are getting low enough that outside buyers are going to come pouring in and save the day.

Anybody got a good site I can go to? Let me know.

Best wishes;

Dirk Knudsen
"The Real Estate Doctor"
Web Reference:  http://www.nwhomecenter.com
0 votes
Richard Dobb…, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Fri Jan 11, 2008
Hello, hhhh. As with many other areas of the US real estate market, the Phoenix market is expected to bottom out sometime in 2008. No one can predict when but we are hoping for the best. We have a great supply of homes in all price range with some very good deals to be found. Currently, there is approximately a 14 month supply of homes, based on inventory levels of 43,300 single family homes as of the beginning of January. This makes it a buyer's market and a great time to buy. Interest rates are low and selection is high. We are currently working with 5 other buyers from Canada. Two of them have already purchased and, coincidentally, they are both from the Toronto area. With the Canadian dollar reaching parity with the US dollar, it is even a better time to buy if your are from Canada. We would be happy to work with you to find the best property for you. You can look at our website at http://www.bergdobblesteam.com for more information about us and the area. Call or email with additional questions.

Rick Dobbles
Realty Executives
0 votes
Jonathan Dal…, Agent, Glendale, AZ
Fri Jan 11, 2008
I've been posting supply figures for the past 18 months on my blog (check the link below and go to Real Estate Inventory for the last 12 - the other six are on a different blog.) We're at 16 months for the Valley as a whole but the number vary depending on the city.
0 votes
Holly Grigai…, Agent, Cottonwood, AZ
Fri Jan 11, 2008
excellent time to buy down there! Go to my blog below for phx market information and a forecast of the coming year. And give the Verde Valley a good once over too!
0 votes
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