I just came back from an economic seminar put on by the California Association of Realtors. They have some interesting projections for the next few years. basically they feel the current wave of foreclosures will peak later this year. It sounds like these foreclosures are the sub-prime loans in trouble. These ahve primarily impacted lower priced homes. The next wave of foreclosures is starting now and should come to fruition over the next couple of years. These loans are known as ALT-A loans (100% financed) Liar loans (stated income) and other more exotic loans. Car's economist feels we may be nearing a bottom on lower priced homes (say $300,000 and under) Sales trends seem to support this. In many areas where foreclosures have been huge the numbers of sales are up drastically. Most homes are in a multiple offer bidding situation down the hill if they are priced aggressively.
Homes priced over $500,000 may have the worst problems ahead of them. The super high end homes have remained stable this past year, however the market is straining. and prices are falling. CAR projects home sales to increase about 8% with a corresponding 19% decrease in prices this year. The drcrease will come largely at the expense of the higher priced homes...
Real estate is very much a local scene. Howeve,. In older established neighborhoods, prices are far more stable than in newer neighborhoods. Looking at this trend, the high end properties in Lake Arrowhead should come down this year, especially those homes built after 2002. Many local Arrowhead agents feel the market is more stable since these are second homes for amny folks. It remains to be seen how far this economic slump will impact the higher eschelon of society. The signs are troubling to say the least. We have the whole Madoff nightmare. The NBA has several tems under severe financial strain. Endowments at major universities are down. I read the Annie Leibovitz, the famed photographer has signed away the rights to some of her work to cover expenses. (:-( http://www.usnews.com/blogs/alpha-consumer/2009/3/5/annie-le
So I think bargains are ahead. What do you value in a vacation home? You are considering your costs carefully? What are the costs you incur by waiting to purchase? (Emotional, esthetic, relationships, family fun, financial, spiritual, etc)
BTW, I'm not in your price range, however my furniture just arrived this week and I'm totally stoked!! We've been sitting on pillows and eating off moving boxes. Now at least we have a dining table and couch. Yippee!
I love just gazing out the windows at trees. We decided to forego having a television set so it's bird and squirrel vision for us. I caught a glimpse of a mountain lion this week in the distance. Really cool stuff!
BTW, I should have a PDF version of the economic news in a week or two. Drop me a line if you'd like to have a copy. I think it would be too long to post here.