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Asked by Carmen Woks, Reno, NV Wed Apr 1, 2009

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Tyler Flaher…, , Turlock, CA
Wed Apr 1, 2009
I agree with quite a few of the statements you have made and yes there probably is way too many individuals shouting its a great time to buy. My only issue is that a 10 city graph/statistic is hardly representation enough of all the demographics and areas in the United States. Large cities are going to show declines for the rest of the year, they are the ones that have held on to high prices the longest. I think a good indicator of turn around is going to be small cities or rural zones close to large cities losing inventory. I love the Wall Street Journal and all, but honestly you can't sum up the entire real estate market with a 10 city graph.
Thanks for your discussion. Im sure you will generate a lot of interest with this post.
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Carmen Woks, , Reno, NV
Wed Apr 1, 2009
How much further will prices fall across the country? Nobody knows, of course. But history says the bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash.

Those "professionals" in the market continue to be wrong-footed. Early last year I wrote that even though prices in Florida and California had collapsed, those markets were still overvalued. Naturally I was on the receiving end of lots of angry emails from real estate brokers who told me I was an idiot (or worse). Events since then have borne out my analysis.

(Incidentally: During the bubble, did a single broker ever complain to a media outlet that reporters were being "too optimistic" about house prices, or were "talking the market up" during a dangerous mania?)

House prices nationwide have now fallen about 30% from their 2006 peak. At these levels the contrarian, inevitably, starts to wonder if they have fallen far enough.
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