Would you say that Tucson is a buyer's, seller's or balanced market?

Asked by Trulia Tucson, Tucson, AZ Fri Apr 19, 2013

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Donna Moulton, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Thu Jul 18, 2013
Whether a real estate market favors buyers, sellers or is a balanced market is not a matter of opinion.

Just the facts, Ma'am.

When there is a six month supply of listings, the market is balanced. When the supply of listings is more than six months, it is a buyers' market. When it is less than six months, it is a sellers' market.

In June we had 1,399 residential sales in the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. Sales = buyers = demand = high.

In June we had 3,953 listings. Listings = sellers = supply = low.

3,953 listings divided by 1,399 sales = 2.83 month inventory of listings. Definitely a strong sellers' market.

A little history lesson puts this in perspective. June 2005 saw the most sales ever in Tucson. 1,890 sales divided by 3,969 listings = 2.10 month inventory. Notice that the number of listings for sale now is LOWER than it was in June 2005. Amazing.

In April 2007, banks were dumping foreclosed properties with bogus mortgages on the market as fast as they could. An extremely short-sighted and destructive policy, but apparently no one manned the brakes of that train wreck. We had 10,387 listings and 1,318 sales. A 7.88 month inventory.

The banks were frantically foreclosing, collecting their mortgage insurance on the loss, and then practically giving away the foreclosed houses, dragging down the value of the neighboring houses in the process. The artificially depressed property values caused more people to be under water on their mortgages, even people who put 20% down and made every payment on time. These conscientious, responsible homeowners were and continue to be the housing bubble train wreck victims to this day.

Even with all these fire sale foreclosures, average price in Tucson peaked at $293,443 in June 2007. The real estate bubble burst in July 2007, starting with the collapse of Tucson's own huge national mortgage lender, First Magnus.

In January 2009, we only had 615 sales, the lowest in the past ten years. There were 7,964 listings. A 13 month inventory.

It surprised no one except the banks when prices continued to slide until September 2011, when we hit bottom with an average sale price of $150,699.

Tucson's average sale price in June 2013 was $196,376, an incredible 30% increase in the past 21 months. You can see for yourself at the Tucson Association of Realtors website:
http://tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/statsJune2013.pdf

Prices continue to rise. A new, but familiar, kind of madness ensues.

Donna Moulton
Associate Broker
Tierra Antigua Realty http://www.SweetDesertHome.com
0 votes
Kat Tyree, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Tue May 28, 2013
Much of Tucson is currently a strong seller's market, and I would be happy to show you maps that indicate where, and in which price points. Neighborhoods each have their own attributes, and will be individual. The lower price points are highly competitive, and there is a need for a very good buyer's agent to achieve success in helping negotiate during multiple offer situations.

That being said, a seller who is overpriced will not sell quickly, and prices are much lower than in previous years. It is an excellent time for buyer's to become homeowners at low interest rates and still low prices!

Kat Tyree, Associate Broker
Long Realty
520-730-5540
TucsonKat@gmail.com
0 votes
Ric Mills, Agent, Oro Valley, AZ
Fri May 24, 2013
From 2008 to last year, it was a great buyer's market. Things have turned around, so that in many areas of the City it is a seller's market. There are still great buys out there in most areas but the inventory is very limited. Right now, most listings are bringing 95%+ of the listing price and are moving very quickly. As always, it depends on what you want a nd location. Homes are still very affordable and there are still amazingly low mortgage rates available.
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Kate Herk, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Sun Apr 28, 2013
For approximately the past 5 years it is fair to say Tucson has been a Buyer's market, more recently the market has began to stabilize in some areas/price ranges or even become a Seller's market. . The inventory is low and well-priced, well-maintained homes are highly desired in all price ranges but particularly the lower-end. I am currently working with quite a few first-time home buyers and they are shocked to find out how competitive it is to buy a home right now. We are seeing many homes receive multiple offers within the first 24 hours and in some cases selling well above asking price.
0 votes
Ric Mills, Agent, Oro Valley, AZ
Sun Apr 21, 2013
As inventory in many areas is declining, the market is in the beginning of a shift. It really depends on what you are looking for and price range. The lower priced homes are moving very fast, middle is stable, and higher end about the same. With rates so low, it is still a great time to buy. Waiting and you could be forced to buy a cheaper home to get the same monthly payment. Or if you are selling, if rates go up, you will likely get less as buyers will be moved down in price for the same payment. Let me know if we can help you further.
0 votes
David Hopper,…, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Sat Apr 20, 2013
I agree with the answers referring to price ranges. The market is moving toward's a Seller's Market from a very strong Buyer's Market. But the lower-priced homes are recovering much faster. The lower the price, the more the market is trending in the Seller's advantage. The higher end has yet to see much if any recovery.
0 votes
Vera Wallace, Agent, Marana, AZ
Sat Apr 20, 2013
As of March 2013 active inventory was 4,337, a 21% decrease from March 2012. There were 1,301 closings in March 2013, 3% below March 2012. Months of Inventory was 3.3, down from 4.1 in March 2012. Median price of sold homes was $152,000 for the month of March 2013, up 14% from March 2012. The Tucson Market had 1,822 new properties under contract in March 2013, down 5% from March 2012.
With the measure of 6 months of inventory as a normal market. Most areas are well under that so I am calling Tucson a Sellers Market.
Good question for more information by specific areas of Tucson/Marana please visit my website for the break downs.
Vera Wallace
http://www.vwallace.longrealty.com
0 votes
Evan Harris,…, Agent, Marana, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
I'd say Tucson is now a Seller's market, with exception of outlying areas, like Avra Valley, Vail, Sahuarita, Catalina, and some parts of Marana. There is a shortage of inventory within the Tucson metro area, outside the city Metro area, there are inventory levels around 6 to 7 months causing more or an equilibrium level between being a buyer or seller market. We are looking at 1% monthly appreciation now, and rising interest rates--It's a PERFECT time to buy or sell! Call me today &

Thank you!
Evan Harris, REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
evancharris@comcast.net
520.481.2580-direct
0 votes
Doug Seemann, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
Generally speaking it is a Sellers Market. There is a little more than Half of the normal number of homes on the market. The laws of supply and demand mean prices go up and sometimes there are bidding wars.
This trend causes a perception that spills in to all markets and priceranges. It is often up to the agents to work with buyers and sellers to get a reality check... That being said, I recently got my buyer a home in the under $100,000 price range for 12% below the asking price, in a market segment known for upbidding. Each home must be looked at on its own merrits and all available data must be considered.
If you visit my website, click on Market report, and then select the Heat Map it will show you generally speaking, by zipcode, what the inventory is and where it is a buyers market vs Sellers market.
Doug Seemann
Long Realty
370-8907
dougs@longrealty.com
Web Reference:  http://dougs.longrealty.com
0 votes
Michael Shin…, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
Ahh, the question to stimulate conversation. Tucson is a VERY large market in the sense that it is so spread out and real estate is based upon location. Location is the most important element in evaluating a home or piece of land. With that said, you can break down the Tucson real estate market into thousands of sub-markets to better determine this question. Overall, it is trending towards a balanced market since inventory levels have substantially declined and home prices have begun to level off. This market swing has largely been caused by the reduction in foreclosure inventory. In all, it is a GREAT time to get in the market from either side!!!
0 votes
"Tucson Dawn"…, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
Depends on the neighborhood and price point.

At the lower end of the market - say $200,000 or less - there is about two months of inventory - a seller's market for sure, and we are seeing multiple offers on homes in good condition.

Mid range is pretty balanced at approximately 4-6 months worth of inventory.

There are a LOT of luxury homes on the market right now, so buyers looking at our high end homes have a lot to choose from. That being said, sellers are generally getting close to asking price.

I have all kinds of fun maps and spreadsheets if anyone is interested :-)

Tucson Dawn
Associate Broker, Long Realty Co.
520-401-5874
DawnH@LongRealty.com
0 votes
Howard Roth, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
Right now I think it's a seller's market up to about $200,000., a balanced market from about $250,000. to about $550,000. and a buyer's market if you're over $600,000. My most recent listing at $119,900. went under contract after just two days, and the $530,000. home I listed less than two weeks ago is also now under contract. Location and condition also still play a strong role in the market, but there is definitely a lot of positive activity going on in our market.

HowardRoth@remax.net 520-370-1530
0 votes
Kat Carr, Agent, Tucson, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
It is going to depend on which market you are in; price and/or area. It varies greatly in Tucson.

Kat Carr
Broker
Homes of the Old Pueblo
520-245-4002
KatCarr@comcast.net
0 votes
Gerardo C Va…, , Tucson, AZ
Fri Apr 19, 2013
Yes, I would say it is, but I think soon it will be a sellers market. Call me if you have any further questions. 520-867-0166
0 votes
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