Will housing prices be falling between late 2010 and early 2011?

Asked by Susie, Bend, OR Fri Sep 17, 2010

We are considering selling our house, listing it in October. Will we be better off waiting til spring?

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18
Karla Wagner, Agent, Bonney Lake, WA
Sat Sep 18, 2010
Wish we had a crystal ball, but my best educated guess is -- prices will most likely continue to decline. I would recommend you list your home immediately, and price it to sell. Good luck.
1 vote
Tom Inglesby, Agent, Portland, OR
Tue Apr 24, 2012
Here we are 2 plus years later and home values are still dropping. I would say sell now if you have not since values have not bottomed out at anything but the entry level price range under $150,000 range and I expect it to be flat with rates at 50 year lows and rates during an election year have in the past been flat but expect the rates to do something next spring 2013 and if they do they will be less affordable to new buyers.
0 votes
Vincent Vill…, Agent, Chula Vista, CA
Sat Oct 16, 2010
I do recommend though..you list right now.
0 votes
Vincent Vill…, Agent, Chula Vista, CA
Sat Oct 16, 2010
Well, I cant answer for your area of Bend, OR.
But in San Diego if rates stay low..I dont see prices falling. The main reason why home values may drop in San Diego is if we see rates going up that will be a big problem.
0 votes
Ruth and Per…, Agent, Los Gatos, CA
Sat Oct 16, 2010
Yes waiting till Spring be smart.

If you dont sell in October, you get caught up with holidays.

Good luck
Perry
Web Reference:  http://www.ruthandperry.com
0 votes
Dan Evans, Agent, Bend, OR
Sat Oct 16, 2010
Hi Susie. Whether you should wait or not really depends on what you're trying to accomplish by selling your house. I can tell you that many buyers I'm working with are looking now to take advantage of our lower prices and historically low interest rates. If rates were to start moving higher, buyers would not be able to borrower as much as they can with today's rates. This could cause the pace of sales to slowdown and/or drive house prices lower to offset the higher interest rates.

But really, it all boils to to what you're trying to accomplish. Feel free to call me to talk about your options.
0 votes
Monir Mamoun, Agent, Denville, NJ
Fri Sep 24, 2010
Tremendous question, Susie. If anyone could give you the answer to that, they should get out of the real estate business and just run a major investment bank!

For a very practical perspective on this tough, tough question, I have a written a four part blog that goes through the entire decision making process for whether it is a good time to buy. That's the other side of the coin that you are probably considering in addition to your decision to sell. You might find it helps clarify that issue, because they go hand in hand and it may well influence your decision of whether you should sell. I have referenced that blog below -- I hope you find it handy, and please feel free to leave comments.
0 votes
Derek Eyring, Agent, Lake Tapps, WA
Sun Sep 19, 2010
Waiting has not paid off in the last 4+ years. In an improving market waiting will keep you either the same or better. Now, it's most always the same or worse. There are some tremendous deals on the buy side-but for that very same reason it makes it tough for you on the sell side. Get on the market and in a declining market price 1-2% below where you think you need to be for a chance at sale.
0 votes
Kevin Kyle C…, , Bend, OR
Fri Sep 17, 2010
"More yes than no" That’s quite a funny perspective but it represents an opinion based on the observations of economic indicators and trends over the years such as unemployment #'s, personal income, Consumer price index, producer price index, Consumer confidence and Consumer spending/savings. Also very important are Interest rate levels and of coarse, what will the Fed and the Banks do next.
The real question is probably, 'will we get more if we list today or if we list in the spring?" In either case, you will not realize more or less than 1.5 % in the sale, now or then. Your asking price will determine your traffic and interest in the property. Today’s market is so much about competitive pricing followed by location, followed by features & amenities.
Could be a winter that makes summer of 2010 look like a bad dream as far as buyer demand is concerned. An interesting fact most of us would not have anticipated here in Bend just a few months ago is that the median for single family homes in Bend on less than 1 acre fell from approx. $210,000 in July to just $176,000 in August. But... I can spin that too. That number will improve in October. It’s an emotionally driven market. Best wishes always. Below is an article worth the read.
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/aug2010/bw2010…
0 votes
Corri Klebaum, Mortgage Broker Or Lender, Clackamas, OR
Fri Sep 17, 2010
70% of the people recently polled by FannieMae and FreddieMac indicated that NOW is a good time to buy. The latest house pricing index forecasts the appreciation for Oregon to be -3.51% in the upcoming year. Today's incredibly low rates are helping to drive fence-sitters to buy. Furthermore if you are lucky enough to not have a short-sale on your hands your property is more attractive to buyers and agents alike because of the lack of headache involved.

Can you afford to sell if it gets worse?
0 votes
Sergio Herna…, , Naples, FL
Fri Sep 17, 2010
No one knows the answer to your first question, but why take a chance in waiting, when values are not likely to go up in the near future?
Web Reference:  http://www.golftobeach.com
0 votes
Robert Page, Agent, Bend, OR
Fri Sep 17, 2010
Typically demand is lower in the winter but so is supply. Winter buyers are usually a more serious lot, more motivated and less likely to be window shoppers. This year a lot of houses are falling off the market due to expired listing contracts and terminations as well as bank owned propertis selling relatively quickly. Most expired and terminated listings come back on the market eventually.

The past 3 years we have seen big spikes of inventory early on in the year. See my charts on this subject: http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Because of so much volatility in our market and uncertainty of where our entire economy is headed, making sound predictions is simply impossible. Even so, there are a lot of folks making "predictions" anyway. What they are really doing is guessing or repeating what they've heard or read.

I've noticed a significant change in peoples perception of prices in Central Oregon toward the positive the past few months which is just as important as the unemployment rate or economic conditions as we attract a lot of retired folks, vacation home buyers, investors, local professionals as well as first time home buyers.

The quick answer is, the sooner the better and please do a lot of up front work in determining the value of your house. This is the single most important step in listing your home and to this day most sellers still don't get it right. List at a price that creates lots of interest in the first week. Make sure your agent goes well beyond advertising in the local MLS and you will have confidence that price reductions, if necessary aren't because of poor marketing.

Best of luck to you.
0 votes
Faye Phillips, , Bend, OR
Fri Sep 17, 2010
Susie,
Thanks for asking your question on Trulia about the best time to list.No one knows for absolute certain what the future holds. Interest rates have been incredibly low, but have ticked up a little this past week. If that trend continues, it will make it more difficult for more people to finance a home. As a rule of thumb, a 1% increase in mortgage rate equates to roughly 10% decrease in the amount of home (purchase price) a person can afford. For sellers, that means less prospective buyers for their home. No one knows what the mortgage interest rate will be in the spring; we can only speculate.
Some neighborhoods and price ranges experience more activity than others. In order to give you a quality answer to your question, I'd need to know more details about your home, its location, condition, size, price you would want to ask, how motivated you are to sell, etc. All those factors would help determine what the market is for your particular home, and help you determine if you should sell now or later.
I send my clients a monthly market analysis via email and I'd be happy to send them to you as well. Even better would be a competitive market analysis done for your own home. This would give you detailed information to help you make an informed decision.
0 votes
Marta Mohan, Agent, Sugarland, TX
Fri Sep 17, 2010
Real Estate is local and I am not in your area, but nontheless I have one piece of advice. Similar to what other Realtors have mentioned, everyone puts their homes up in the Spring - the competition is tremendous. If you put it on the market now, there may be fewer buyers but there are also fewer sellers, less competition. There are always buyers out in the market. I am not sure about your area, but in my area there is an uptick in sales right before the end of the year. Also remember that people that are out looking during the Holidays are true buyers, many of the people out looking in the Spring are just 'out looking'. You will get fewer showings but they will be real buyers, good luck
Web Reference:  http://www.martamohan.com
0 votes
Melanie Mait…, Agent, Bend, OR
Fri Sep 17, 2010
Susie, I think if you have to sell, you are better to sell it now and not wait until spring. Until the foreclosure properties slow down I believe the market will still go down and there is still a lot of this going on. Most people wait until spring, but I say put it on now interest rates are low, you will have less competition and if the market is still going down it is going to worth less in springtime. Please let me know if I can help.
0 votes
Anna M Brocco, Agent, Williston Park, NY
Fri Sep 17, 2010
As to where prices will go--none of us can answer with accuracy as none of knows for sure where the market will head, however we all know today--therefore, consider selling when you need to sell and are ready to sell.
0 votes
Popgoesbend, Home Buyer, Bend, OR
Fri Sep 17, 2010
I wouldn't expect a turn around in the market for at least another couple years. The last few months saw a major decrease in both number of sales and median price in Bend. The jobs situation here isn't looking any better. There are still more homes going into default than selling in Deschutes county every month. Credit isn't getting easier to come by. The last few years we have seen pricing be fairly stable for the summer, start to turn down in early fall and then set a new low by about April. I don't expect this year to be any different. The best time to sell your house: 2006. The next best time : tomorrow. Get it on the market at a price that will actually sell this fall. You don't want to be chasing the market down like so many other folks.

Good luck in whatever you decide.
0 votes
Julian Drake…, Agent, Austin, TX
Fri Sep 17, 2010
All real estate is local so don't pay attention to CNN. Talk to a local realtor to understand whats going on in your market. Part of the realtors job is to interpret market conditions. You might consider talking to more than one so you get a consensus.
0 votes
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