When do you think the housing market will bottom out in Tampa Bay area & what kind of recovery do you see?

Asked by Cathy, Valrico, FL Fri Sep 26, 2008

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M, , Florida
Fri Sep 26, 2008
Dear Cathy,
Everyone is asking this same question for their specific area of concern. Our colleagues from Vero talk about the market there, and yes Vero still has a lot of property on the market that was purchased primarily by investors. Right next door to the west in Port Saint Lucie, you have over 7,000 homes on the market and the majority of them are short sales. Go across the state to Naples and you will find that sales have been picking up and over all homeowners lost minimal home value over the past 24 months compared to Miami which has seen losses as high as 40%. In Asheville, NC the averages are completely different with about a 1-2% value loss during the past 24 months. Recovery will really depend on inventory, the job market, the mortgage issue and your local market. Data for Tampa seems to indicate that recovery will be moderately slow. The real estate in general seems to have leveled off, but there really isn't anything escalating market conditions to improve in Tampa for now.
I'd enjoy hearing feedback from our colleagues.
Terry Molnar
The Schaffer Realty Group
2 votes
Jeff and Gin…, Agent, Vero Beach, FL
Fri Sep 26, 2008
The Florida real estate market is currently one of the more challenged areas of the nation. Why this happened is largely because Florida is so appealing that many investors and people anticipating their retirements in a few years bought homes pre-construction homes. For about a decade, people were making money flipping Florida real estate. Many areas, including Vero Beach experienced double digit appreciation of "value" for many years. Then, with the credit crisis and an overly plentiful supply of available homes, the prices began to fall and have not yet stopped falling.

Most demographers were projecting a mid 2009 recovery for Florida but the national financial crisis may complicate the recovery if credit is too tight and too many people cannot borrow money or are wary of borrowing money. Barron's Magazine featured a scholarly discussion of the real estate market last month that I would advise you to read. We are still hopeful for a 2009 stabilization for home sale prices unless the national situation is unresolved or packs a bigger impact than could support a recovery.
2 votes
Trey Miller, , Tampa, FL
Thu Dec 4, 2008
You must have read my mind. I just posted basically the same question. I don't think anyone can predict the bottom. Since 2007 I have heard that the 3rd quarter of the next year will be turnaround time. So far I don't think that is true. In my opinion you will know the market has bottomed when prices stabilize and time on the market is below 6 months. As for what kind of recovery, probably 0 - 1% appreciation for 3 - 5 years then a more "normal" appreciation after that. I just pray that we don't have to go through the crazy highs and excrutiating lows for a long time.

Trey Miller
Prudential Tropical Realty
Web Reference:  http://www.TampaTrey.com
1 vote
Vickie Bruni, Agent, Sun City Center, FL
Fri Sep 26, 2008
Hi Cathy,

Depending on where you are looking at property in Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has about 18 months of inventory property. The New Home Builders are going back to 2004-2005 prices. It is still a buyer market and client still can get loans, If you are looking to sell a home it really isn't a good time. I usally tell my client "if you don't have to sell don't" If you are a buyer it best time to buy. If I can help any way call 813-892-8256 or email vickiebhomes@yahoo.com. I hope I answer your question.
Web Reference:  http://www.thebruniteam.com
1 vote
Julia Vakule…, , Tampa, FL
Fri Dec 5, 2008
Nostradamus had a quatrain on this. It's also on the Mayan Calendar. September 22, 2009. And the bottom is when it's fully recovered. 2005 and 2206 is when it was sick.
Web Reference:  http://www.tampa4u.com
0 votes
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