Capchris, Home Owner in Heathrow, FL

What is the housing price forecast for Heathrow for the next 5 years?

Asked by Capchris, Heathrow, FL Fri Jan 7, 2011

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Great question Capchris.

Forecasting the recovery of the housing market in general is little better than an educated guess and to forecast a specific neighborhood would be even more difficult to substantiate. My two cents is that we've got two or three more years of distressed properties to sell in order to get supply and demand back into balance. Once we have a balanced market I would think we'll see flat real estate prices for another couple of years and then very, very small price appreciation but that's possibly outside of the five year range.

I think tight lending, appraisers, lenders, bankers, investors, regulators, the FED and a thousand other groups will not let any significant appreciation be possible for many years. Add in the caution of the buyers and the memory of the boom and bust and we could see prices be fairly level for quite a while.

My advice in this market is for people to buy a home for long term benefits. A fixed cost of a mortgage instead of rent, the tax deduction on mortgage interest and property taxes, reduced property taxes due to lower values, stability for the family and "roots", a place to call your own are very good reasons to buy real estate. Steep appreciation is not a reason to speculate in real estate unless you have a niche like buying distressed homes, remodeling and reselling/flipping.

If I had a property to sell in Heathrow in the next five years I'd do it now. Of course it may depend on whether you own a higher priced single family home or a lower priced condo but I'd suggest careful analysis of your objectives and I wouldn't plan on prices moving up or down much in the next five years. One thing I'm pretty sure of is that people who think prices will return to 2005-2006 boom levels anytime soon will be very disappointed. That's almost certainly not going to happen.

All that said, this is an interesting discussion and anyone else's opinion on this could be better than yours or mine. It will be interesting to see what prices are in Heathrow (and everywhere else in Central Florida) at the end of 2015!

Real estate decisions are "case by case' based on your situation as well as the market and trends so if I was considering the sale of a home in Heathrow I would consult a few Realtors and have that discussion. Let me know if I can help. Have a great weekend!


Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Florida Home Team Realty, LLC
Direct, Anytime: (407) 869-7779
Toll Free: (888) 412-8681 Fax: (407) 869-8987
Web Site: or

See Thousands of Foreclosures and Bank Owned Properties! Go to and click on "FORECLOSURE".

What's your home worth? No cost, no obligation, automatically stay in touch with home prices and trends! Click here for FREE HOME EVALUATION & MARKET TRENDS
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 7, 2011
After the election in 2012 housing prices should start to rise again!

Richard Shuman
Florida Wholesale Realty Corp
1 vote Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 7, 2011
We just moved into Heathrow.
I am a GC so we bought a Freddie Mac home that had been decimated.
We put it in nearly new condition with 50K in upgrades-and could not be more pleased!
Neighbors, neighborhood, activities, location-location- and an excellent grade school.
We know it will go up-simply because of the area-but couldn't care less. We are here to stay!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Nov 9, 2012
Hi Capchris --

Interesting discussion--I agree with almost everything Marty has said. The best piece of advice he gave was to get more than one CMA and that goes for anyone who is thinking of putting their home on the market. Agents come at the numbers from various angles and methodologies and it's always a good idea to get more than one opinion. If the two opinions are light years apart, then you're going to have to get a third opinion to see which one is more likely to be correct.

The reality of the situation if you have to sell now is that you have to sell now--and getting the maximum net $ amount is imperative. If you don't have to sell, all of this is an interesting academic discussion and whoever is "right" doesn't much matter.

I too believe that we are in a flat period now (neither continuing the decline but certainly not on the upswing yet). I also think that when we do reach bottom, the trip back up will be very slow (1-3%/year as in the "normal" years before the boom). So if you're correct that your home has declined 30% since you purchased it (and if you paid top dollar in 2006 and even paid over appraised value to be the lucky "winner" of the property, you probably are correct), it will be at least 10 years before you recover that sales price.

If you have to sell, get an honest opinion of value and costs to sell and make the hard decision. If you don’t have to sell, stop torturing yourself--you have a place to live in a terrific community that you chose, at a payment you can afford (otherwise you’re in the “have to sell” category).

Just as an aside—if this IS an academic argument and you are trying to get a feel for the market value of your home, you can call many agents and ask them to run the comps for you. Tell them up front that you’re not going to put your home on the market and you’re just trying to get an accurate picture of what has happened to the value of your home. I have done this many times for homeowners. That way you are not asking for several hours of an agent’s time with no possibility of remuneration but only for an hour or so to run the comps and follow up with a phone call and email to explain them. Any professional who has been in the business for some length of time is happy to do this, if only for the goodwill value it might generate.

Note to Lynn: What Article in the Code of Ethics prevents us from “predicting the future in any real estate market”? Also, since you reference it, I suggest you re-read the Code and pay particular attention to Article 11 as you comment on issues in the Florida market.

In any event, Capchris, best of luck to you. It is a challenging time to be thinking of selling (particularly for people who bought or refinanced based on 2005-2007 valuations.) Historically speaking, real estate ALWAYS appreciates—it’s just the timeline that matters.

Best regards,

Louise Warring
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate
3733 Lake Emma Road
Lake Mary, FL 32746
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jan 16, 2011
As far as I could tell none of the comps she provided were actually in Heathrow, don't know what that is since there are plenty of homes identical to mine.

My takeaway on all of this is our home price has probably fallen about 30% since we bought it in late 2006.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 14, 2011
Against professional code of ethics for a Realtor predict the future of any housing market

Lynn911 Dallas Realtor & Consultant, Loan Officer, Credit Repair Advisor
The Michael Group - Dallas Business Journal Top Ranked Realtors
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 14, 2011
I was just reading over this, and it brings up a couple of questions you may want to ask your agent.

1. What time frame did your agent say she expects to sell your house at that price?
According to the stats put out by the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, homes were on the market for an average of 96 days in December. Now, that's all of Orlando. Just remember there's less volume in a high-end neighborhood like Heathrow.

2. When were the CMA's (comps) dated back to?
Banks won't even look at a CMA that's more than six months old.

If the time frame and CMA's match up, then I'd say she is probably right.
Just as an extra FYI, I specialize in Tuscawilla (about 20min from Heathrow) and the prices here are holding up very well compared to the rest of Orlando.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 14, 2011
Hi again Capchris.

Yes, you basically captured my feel for the market but I lean toward flat and don't see any significant declines. I'm thinking and hoping we've hit bottom and that the distress properties that are coming onto the market have alreayd been priced into the depressed prices of today. I say flat for a while, a long while.

There are the banks, the FED, the appraisers, Wall Street, lending guidelines and congressional mandates, excessively tight underwriting standards, a narely breathing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, too many people with unacceptable credit, too many people who have recently had a bad experience and dozens of other factors that will keep a lid securely on any price appreication for many years. People tell me they'll "sell in a year or two when the prices come back" and I just shake my head. I think it will be 2025 before prices aprroach the peak we had in 2005-2006. No one will soon forget the historical boom and bust and we won't see it repeated for many years, maybe not for generations.

As far as another agent's competitive market analysis on your home, that's almost impossible to give you any guidance since I don't know the specifics. I suppose you could be in the rare few who purchased in 2007 and can sell for that price in 2011 but that would be a fairly unusual exception. It IS possible if you bought way below market in 2007, or if you did major renovations and improvements, or if there are some unusual circumstances. I can tell you unequivocally that prices in Heathrow today in general are not close to 2007 prices but there could be a reason the agent recommended the price she did.

As far as being in left field, maybe and maybe not. She has the facts which I don't have and she presented them to you. Was it believable and did you think she has a command of the facts and the market? If she backed up her pricing recommendation with good recent comparables and it made sense, she might be dead on. My suggestion would be to get another (or two more) CMA's and see what comparables other agents use and what prices they recommend. After reviewing the data you should list with the agent you believe has the best understanding of the market and equally important I'd compare their detailed marketing programs, the compensation offered to attract buyer's agents and their buyers, recommendations from past and current clients, and your "gut" about who you trust to be your agent, even if it's not the "highest bidder".

I've heard of situations where an agent would "buy the listing" by suggesting an inflated price. I'm not in any way suggesting this with the agent you met because I don't know her, her qualifications, or how solid is the research and data she provided. It may be top of the line or not. I think our industry serves the consumer better if we have an open and honest pricing and strategy discussion that accurately gives the consumer the most reliable information to make their decisions. In any competitive situation between agents (who are basically applying for a job, right?) and home owners who really want to believe their home is worth some inflated price, it's easy to see why there are listings at wildly inflated prices.

If your circumstances are that you CAN sell in 2011 for the 2007 price you are very fortunate. Most of all, good luck with whatever you decide. Have a great weekend!


Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Florida Home Team Realty, LLC
Direct, Anytime: (407) 869-7779
Toll Free: (888) 412-8681 Fax: (407) 869-8987
Web Site: or

See Thousands of Foreclosures and Bank Owned Properties! Go to
and click on "FORECLOSURE".

What's your home worth? No cost, no obligation, automatically stay in touch with home prices and trends! Click here for FREE HOME EVALUATION & MARKET TRENDS
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 7, 2011
To Marty:
Thanks for the detailed answer! So your bottom line on the next 5 years is basically

* Prices will continue for fall or stay flat best case, correct?

So what would you say about a realtor who is telling me the competitive market value of our home in Heathrow is coming in at about the same as what we paid for it in 2007? She presented a bunch of comps to back up that listing price but frankly this realtor must be in left field to propose we list it for the same price as I bought it for....comments?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 7, 2011
Hi Capchris,

Any predictions on future pricing would be a guess at best. As long as the inventory remains high and a large portion of that is distressed properties prices are going to stay level or fall. That could take many years.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 7, 2011
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