A very good question and an extremely tough one to answer.
First of all, an agent in Ft. Myers, even one that studies the economic trends is not likely to know the data for an are that is 125 miles away and vice versa. You will have to discover the economics independently.
You asked about return in the long run. Does your happiness with where you live for part of the year enter into the equation or is it strictly purchase dollar vs resale dollar? Or, does cost of maintaining and cost of living enter into the equations as that may differ from location to location.
Doreen, real estate is an investment, but you can't analyze it with a black and white prospectus like you can a stock certificate. I recommend you take enough time to visit both areas make a decision on where you prefer to have a second home, and then go from there. I strongly suspect that the economic factors won't differ that greatly, but I would have to be an expert in both markets to make an actual claim with a high degree of certainty.
I can help you with the Ft. Myers economics, feel free to contact me directly anytime.
Tom Bernardo, Realtor, GRI
Keller Williams World Class Realty