Thats interesting, they interviewed the Agent who is looking for a house for Shaq less than a month ago. ON TV!!
I too agree that it is not "always a good time to buy for everyone" but for a lot of people it is. (about 6000 a month currently) I mostly deal in REO properties and they are priced right and selling quickly. But you are correct. there are 1.5 million+ people NOT buying in phoenix right now.
As far as numbers.... The best indicator of a turn in the market in the coming future is more properties going off the market than coming on. We are starting to trend that way. Not there yet, but headed that way a little more each week.
Our Listings on the market not selling has dropped to 45,689 as of the 1st of this week, Under contract homes has risen to 7,196 and Closing in 30 days is at 5,584. Total inventory on 6/23/08 was 52,885 (down from over 60,000 in the begining of the year.)
These are indicators, but you can believe the media if you want. I am not the smartest guy in the world. But not the dumbest either. I do realize that the positive attitude of Realtors is necessary to combat the negativeness of Media and other people in society who do not have their fingers on the pulse of the market. Mine are only on the East Valley markets that I know and have worked for the last 20 years, so dont ask about home values in Scottsdale, Peoria, or elsewhere, I could not tell you. I can tell you that in my office business has picked up drastically in the last 2.5 months. Buyers are buying, deals are being made and invenory that is priced right is moving.
Shaq on the other hand has plenty of time. Properties over 1 million have a 40.5 month supply! Queen Creek (one of the harder hit markets) has 1626 homes on the market and 490 pending, while there have been 659 close since May 1, they are down to 4.8 months supply. Homes are affordable again out there.
Basically it is up to the buyers to determine if now is their time to buy. They could wait and if the election goes horribly wrong, the country could go farther in the tank.. One never knows.
OK I am tired of typing.
Have a great weekend.