Seeking statistics regarding "relocation turnover" in San Francisco.

Asked by P, Gom Wed Jan 16, 2008

Considering that home sales are at a historical low, e,g in Noe Valley, while prices have climbed ~50% since this time last year, does anyone have a reference to the question: Are people who arrive in SF from other locales, leaving sooner, i,e after renting for 1 year, without having purchased a house or condo? I am sure there is a better way to ask this question, so your advice would be greatly appreciated.

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Howard Sobel, , San Francisco, CA
Tue Feb 12, 2008
I do a lot of leasing in Noe Valley and surrounding areas and I think that the tech 2.0 boom (thanks Trulia) has brought many high paying jobs to the area and they all want to live near 101 or from Noe to the Mission because the internet is creating so many new tech media jobs
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P, Home Buyer, Gom
Fri Jan 18, 2008
Thanks very much for the replies. Gregory put his finger on the correct question: What percent of new arrivals actually purchase a property and stay in SF for more than 10 years, across multiple income levels, i,e in $-ranges ( less than 60k, 60 - 120, 120 - 180, 180 - 240, greater that 240), categories (lowest, low-middle, middle, upper-middle, upper), etc. Reasons why, such as : "sticker shock", "housing supply", "employment", "crime", "consumer confidence", "locale of origin", "sense of opportunity", all appear at least anecdotally to play one role or another. But with demographics and economy such an important part of this city, I imagine one might find such a survey to be of some interest (sociologists, city planners, employers and realtors). No?
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Melanie Nard…, , San Francisco, CA
Thu Jan 17, 2008
I don't think I can directly answer your question, but I have a few statistics, and anecdotal experience, that you may be able to draw some conclusions from.

The latest overall SF sales stats I have reflect the number of sales for Nov 07 (479 transactions) was down 15.7% from Nov 06 (479); and the median home price in San Francisco was up 7.5% over this same period.

In 94114 zip code 48.5% of the population has been in the same home 5+ years, and the zip skews a little older at a median age of 37.7 (2000 census), with unemployment 1.8% reported at that time. All this shows the stability of the neighborhood and In my experience people move to Noe and stay (I lived there 15 years myself).

I haven't calculated Noe sales for last year specifically, so I can't confirm that "they are at a historical low," which I doubt (I think 1990-91 may have been lower), although there were a number of TIC units that languished on the market due to lack of parking or awkward flow at the end of the year. Right now there is very little inventory in 2-4 unit buildings (not TIC units) across the City, and a lot of 1031 buyers looking.

In terms of relocations, people coming from metros such as New York, Boston or LA are more likely to buy than those who are coming from other areas who usually have such sticker shock they can't bring themselves to buy even if they qualify and intend to be here 5 years. NAR publishes a report showing migration patterns, although I haven't purchased it (it's $50 and may help you analyze part of your questions).
People who intend to be here a year or less won't be buying, but our corporate short term rental market is extremely healthy.
I'm not sure what insight you're looking to gain from the question, but I hope these few stats help. Let us know what you find out!
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Wed Jan 16, 2008
Are you asking what percent of new residents actually purchase property and stay in the area for say more than ten years?
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