Nationally prices are forecasted to decline 15-25% over the next year. Are prices in Columbia declining?

Asked by Robert Fernandez, Maryland Tue Oct 2, 2007

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Art Lane, , Howard County, MD
Mon Oct 22, 2007
Hi Robert,

On a 2007 YTD basis, actual average closed prices for all types of housing on a consolidated basis (condos, townhomes and single family homes) have declined approximately 8% in Howard County. The largest slide happened in September, and probably is representative of price reductions following the end of the summer buying season.

If you would like to see a graphical depiction of these stats, please drop by my website.

Warmest regards,

Art Lane
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George Belle…, Agent, Ellicott City, MD
Tue Oct 2, 2007
In addition to the data looking backward, there are also significant changes ahead which will impact home prices in Columbia. Because of the BRAC (Base Realignment and Closure) which is occurring at Ft. Meade and the surrounding areas, which is just East of Howard County, there will be thousands of new jobs created within close commuting distance to Columbia. Many of the jobs and pay grades expected to come to the area align well with the prices of current housing stock in Columbia. Additionally, Columbia is halfway between Baltimore and Washington, and the Baltimore Washington Corridor has an economy which is less cyclical, and is projected to grow at a healthy rate. While there may be some continued price declines (understanding that the area is relatively expensive already) the factors listed above will likely serve to mitigate such a drastic decrease in prices.
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Brian Pakulla, Agent, Ellicott City, MD
Tue Oct 2, 2007
To give you even more Aug 2007 vs Aug 2006....average sold price in Howard County was up from 1.90% year over year....($493,656 vs $481,551).

In Columbia in particular here is each zip code for August 2007 vs August 2006:

-1.19% for 21044
-4.64% for 21045
-5.00% for 21046

Columbia is not doing as well as other parts of Howard County, say Ellicott City 21043, where home prices are up 5.52%. Columbia is essentially fully developed. The others parts of the county have an increase in average sales price due to higher prices of new construction homes.

Understand these numbers also fluctuate from month-to-month...let's look at July 2007 July 2006

-6.20% for 21044
+5.02% for 21045
+.62% for 21046

21043 still did well up 12.80% in July 2007 vs July 2006.

All data is from the Realtor MLS - MRIS.

Let me know if I can help you further.
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Brian Pakulla, Agent, Ellicott City, MD
Tue Oct 2, 2007
The Howard County market is doing well compared to the nation. Prices are flat and are not depreciating or appreciating.
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