NJ next to fall soon ? The California median home price is at the lowest point since February 2002, when

Asked by Tom, Edison, NJ Thu Jan 22, 2009

it was $245,000. It marks a 49-percent decline from the peak of $484,000 in the spring of 2007.

Read the full article
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090122/ap_on_bi_ge/california_homes

-Tom

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8
Roberto Ribas, , Scottsdale, AZ
Sun Feb 8, 2009
funny, every area as it starts to correct, has realtors saying 'it won't be as bad' or 'our area is different'

every single one!
0 votes
Catherine "C…, Agent, Metuchen, NJ
Sun Feb 8, 2009
Hi Tom,
It’s interesting that you are asking this question. I was thinking about comparing in my monthly statistics review Middlesex County (NJ) versus a County in California (Santa Clara County for instance). The reason is to show that different markets can behave with drastic different depth.
As the Trulia community already mentioned, all real estate market are local, down to a neighborhood level.

Let me show you the difference between Middlesex County and Santa Clara County:

In Santa Clara County, for January, the average Sold price was $561,469.
Down 15% from previous month (December 08).
Down 44% from January 08.

In Middlesex County, for January, the average Sold price was $358,252.
Up 7% from previous month (December 08)
Down 7% from January 08

(Data from Multi Listing System and for single family property only)

To get back to your question as to NJ being next to fall, it is not likely to be so. NJ is somewhat following the corrective trend of the last few years but with a lower depth that most other Counties in the US.

I hope it was helpful,
Cathy C.
0 votes
Eagles, , Ewing, MO
Fri Jan 23, 2009
I think it will be. We have yet to see the fall out from the Wall Street mess. When the yuppies in North Jersey don't get their 6 figure wall street bonuses that they are used to you will really begin to see prices drop. I think a 600k house will become a 400k house in another 6-9 months. Prices will move back in line with incomes and be about were they were pre 9/11. Demographics are also working against the housing markets the greedy baby boomers are waitng to retire and sell their big house in the burbs unforuantlety the Gen Xers are relatively small group and don't have the dough to support the prices in NJ. The gen Y kids are still to young to buy a house and they are really getting killed by unemployment Ask the profs at Rutgers and they will tell you that NJ is losing people the new south. Any way you look at it prices in NJ are still going down for a couple of more years.
0 votes
William Leigh…, , New Jersey
Fri Jan 23, 2009
Hey Tom: I'm afraid you've been scared by the boogieman! Yes, housing is in the dumper. No, NJ is not California or 3000 miles near California.

Yes prices are down BUT THEY ARE DOWN IN VARYING AMOUNTS, NEIGHBORHOOD BY NEIGHBORHOOD.

NJ is doing "relatively well, especially when compared to what were the "hot” markets, such as Southern California, Florida or Los Vegas. The big problem, as I see it, id that there is STILL very limited credit and very little enthusiasm for purchases of ANY sort. With the constant dirge of lay-off notices, people are afraid to add to their fixed expenses. Do you blame them? It seems that you are more than a little skittish yourself.

Can I tell you that all will be well next month and I'll be able to say, as a mother would to her child who skinned his knee, "All better now"? Nope. Warren Buffet, the financier who can see around corners, or so it was said just last night in his introduction on TV, said himself in the interview, words to the effect that he has no idea when things will improve but it won't be a quick fix.

So, what exactly is your question about? If you are planning to sell, you won't get what you could have in 2007. On the other hand, you won't pay what you would have then for a new house, either. So, it's a good swap, if you're moving up. Mortgage rates are VERY low, if you can find one and I hear that more are to be found then last month. Those rates will last on a purchase you make today for the rest of the time you own the place but won't last forever in terms of availability. Act now in that regard.

If you are worrying about the fact that the home you now own is worth less than you paid for it, don't sweat it. You bought a residence not a day trade in the stock market. You don't have to cover a short sale. (Unless, of course, you have lost your job and can no longer afford the mortgage.) If that's the case, take courage, the good mortgage companies (I hope you worked with one) are renegotiating terms and the government may weigh in further on that issue as well.

In the long run, as Mr. Buffet said so precisely, the fundamental US economy and our national capacity to produce and grow remains strong. That means that housing VALUES will rebound. I bought my first home for $10,000 and even in today's market I could sell it at an order of magnitude greater than that today. (Subject to finding a courageous buyer who could get a mortgage.)

Courage
0 votes
Jeanne Feeni…, Agent, Basking Ridge, NJ
Fri Jan 23, 2009
Hi there Tom, I do most of my work in Somerset and Middlesex Counties and our peak was in the spring and summer of '05. Since then our market has been on a decline but not to the level you reference for California. As all other responders have stressed, markets are local and perform differently. Actual local performance has surely been negatively influenced - if only by hesitancy on the part of buyers - by the national media, but in the end, the markets remain local in spite of shared factors. Overlaying national stats on local markets usually just creates confusion.

My suggestion is that you team up with a good local agent when the time is right for you to sell/buy. Weichert sponsors free no obligation buyer seminars, and the next one is this Saturday. We will be discussing the positive effect on shift in mortgage rates and increase in buying power they present. If you have an interest, contact me for details or go to http://www.feenick.com and click on Planned Events.

Good luck,
Jeannie Feenick
Search and connect at http://www.feenick.com
Web Reference:  http://www.feenick.com
0 votes
Laura Gianno…, Agent, Manahawkin, NJ
Fri Jan 23, 2009
As already stated, all markets are local. Homes prices in my area (southern Ocean and northern Atlantic Counties) are lower on average due to short sales and foreclosures, but by no means off by 54%. These homes are pushing the average sale price lower.

Laura Giannotta
Keller Williams Atlantic Shore
0 votes
Deborah Madey, Agent, Brick, NJ
Fri Jan 23, 2009
New Jersey values have been pushed downward by the local market conditions. The patterns and statistics in one part of California are not a predictor of what will happen in pockets of New Jersey. Within California, market conditions vary from one location to another. The same applies in New Jersey. The tier of properties in one price band can perform differently than properties in another price bank within the same geography depending upon the buyer activity and inventory within each price tier.

There are certainly factors at a national level that impact all of housing: interest rates, bank performance, Freddie and Fannie guidelines, derivatives. At a regional and local level, employment statistics may vary from the national trend, the available inventory and building permits issued will vary, guidelines for lending vary from one market to another. These are only a few of the conditions which impact real estate values.

No one dismisses the impact of national news and events on our economy and collective housing markets. Neither can we dismiss the impact of the region and local conditions which shape our individual markets.

The best way to understand a local New Jersey market is to evaluate all data impacting that specific geography and track the activity within that location.
0 votes
Shalu Thaman, Agent, Princeton, NJ
Thu Jan 22, 2009
Hi Tom.

Hello again :-)

It seems you've been tracking th NJ market since 2007......or rather the nation's real estate market.

NJ and California are 2 different markets..................please remember that real estate is local.

The most accurate way to track where pricing is headed is to review listings from the MLS for a period of time.
At the same time, know where YOUR comfort zone or qualification regarding financing is.

ALL these variables are changing........not just pricing.
Web Reference:  http://www.SoldByShalu.com
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