Not only are there pre-foreclosures there is that "Shadow inventory" of already foreclosed, vacant properties. If banks were to put all that inventory on the market all at once, it would be disastrous. I think the last number I heard was 8 million, Nationally. So again we should expect some percentage of that number, although a smaller percentage than other regions..
My take, we are in for a bumpy ride, nothing new. The bigger question is how high is the inventory with respect to the number of buyers out there ready to pop. They want to and many are prepared to. What is holding them back is... will they keep there jobs...will they have to take a decrease in pay to keep that job and with the wind whispering tax increases, well you know the rest.
Too much uncertainty.
A thoughtful question which inspires debate. Time will tell. By the way love that phrase "BUYERS RULE!!! THOSE WHO THINK DIFFERENTLY ARE FOOLS!! "
I will also add "Anyone who uses the rhetoric that prices have bottomed as well as predict whether interest rate's will rise and fall is not living in reality." Remember the rhetoric out there last spring? Well prices continued to drop and so did interest rates.
It's been a pleasure.
"Your Beacon to Fairfield County Lifestyles"
Candace Lipira, Realtor
Keller Williams Platinum Properties
Do you think we have 10 years of inventory here?
Do you think we have 4?
I don't think we have a year's worth.
I have run through the numbers many times as I have a background of sitting behind a desk analyzing this stuff. When you take Las Vegas, Detroit and Miami out of the picture the story changes.
Buyers have a great position now and are getting "deals", but that term is relative. I have not said anything about pricing or job creation or anything but inventory for that matter.
I'm not sure where the market is going, i'm just very confident that when the outliers (any quant analyst would do the same) are removed from the inventory numbers we don't have 10 years of availability.
Love the discussion!
The real estate sale figures in Greenwich & Fairfield County CT in general for 2008-2010 are disappointing at best.
THE INVENTORY THAT DOES SELL IS PRICED WELL FOR THE CURRENT MARKET.
BUYERS RULE!!! THOSE WHO THINK DIFFERENTLY ARE FOOLS!!
Most of the homes that are selling are the bargains!!
Buyers expect bargains regardless of price range.
Have you considered how many homes are in pre-foreclosure status in Greenwich and Fairfield County CT?
Most of the distressed inventory is not on the market for sale.
Do some digging you will be shocked!
You are quite right that the US National real estate picture is much different from our cocoon here in the Metro New York Area. Many times clients ask just this sort of question. Also many buyers are extemely aggressive in their offer prices, feeding off media stats from flailing areas of the nation, not ours (thank heavens). As a result they often are rejected and the tone of the transactions that due ensue are many times more hostile and counter productive. The bottom-feeding psyche is only successful in our market with regards to the distressed properties and leaves us Realtors often in a tough clash of buyer/seller egos these days!.