Robin Kencel, Real Estate Pro in Greenwich, CT

If the inventory numbers didn't include Las Vegas, Detroit, and Miami would they be telling a different story?

Asked by Robin Kencel, Greenwich, CT Wed Sep 15, 2010

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Both ladies are correct. National numbers do not reflect what is going on in our unique NY Metropolitan area or even those unique quasi urban areas of towns. My take, the closer to town ammenties the better chance of a property selling. Urbanization is what I think will change the landscape of Real Estate. And rentals will rule. When you consider what you get to write off your taxes versus maintenance of a home, there is an argument for renting instead of buying. Look at the REITS.

Not only are there pre-foreclosures there is that "Shadow inventory" of already foreclosed, vacant properties. If banks were to put all that inventory on the market all at once, it would be disastrous. I think the last number I heard was 8 million, Nationally. So again we should expect some percentage of that number, although a smaller percentage than other regions..
My take, we are in for a bumpy ride, nothing new. The bigger question is how high is the inventory with respect to the number of buyers out there ready to pop. They want to and many are prepared to. What is holding them back is... will they keep there jobs...will they have to take a decrease in pay to keep that job and with the wind whispering tax increases, well you know the rest.
Too much uncertainty.
A thoughtful question which inspires debate. Time will tell. By the way love that phrase "BUYERS RULE!!! THOSE WHO THINK DIFFERENTLY ARE FOOLS!! "
I will also add "Anyone who uses the rhetoric that prices have bottomed as well as predict whether interest rate's will rise and fall is not living in reality." Remember the rhetoric out there last spring? Well prices continued to drop and so did interest rates.

It's been a pleasure.

"Your Beacon to Fairfield County Lifestyles"

Candace Lipira, Realtor
Keller Williams Platinum Properties
203-856-8501 cell
203-544-9786 home
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 15, 2010
If anyone really knows where the market is or isn't going in 6 months please tell me!
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0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 15, 2010
I'm not saying that we don't have "high" levels of inventory here in fairfield county, i'm just saying that they don't come close to the cities that have real problems. The newspapers are trying to sell....well newspapers, so they need to come up with a story that is exciting.

Do you think we have 10 years of inventory here?

Do you think we have 4?

I don't think we have a year's worth.

I have run through the numbers many times as I have a background of sitting behind a desk analyzing this stuff. When you take Las Vegas, Detroit and Miami out of the picture the story changes.

Buyers have a great position now and are getting "deals", but that term is relative. I have not said anything about pricing or job creation or anything but inventory for that matter.

I'm not sure where the market is going, i'm just very confident that when the outliers (any quant analyst would do the same) are removed from the inventory numbers we don't have 10 years of availability.

Love the discussion!
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0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 15, 2010

The real estate sale figures in Greenwich & Fairfield County CT in general for 2008-2010 are disappointing at best.
Most of the homes that are selling are the bargains!!
Buyers expect bargains regardless of price range.
Have you considered how many homes are in pre-foreclosure status in Greenwich and Fairfield County CT?
Most of the distressed inventory is not on the market for sale.
Do some digging you will be shocked!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 15, 2010
Hi Scott,
You are quite right that the US National real estate picture is much different from our cocoon here in the Metro New York Area. Many times clients ask just this sort of question. Also many buyers are extemely aggressive in their offer prices, feeding off media stats from flailing areas of the nation, not ours (thank heavens). As a result they often are rejected and the tone of the transactions that due ensue are many times more hostile and counter productive. The bottom-feeding psyche is only successful in our market with regards to the distressed properties and leaves us Realtors often in a tough clash of buyer/seller egos these days!.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 15, 2010
I'm just tired of the papers talking about how horribly high our inventory numbers are, while not taking into account the outliers (these cities). I'm not seeing horribly high inventory numbers over here.
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0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 15, 2010
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