Here's an update on the inventory stats for Asbury. Condo sales are up 25% in 2008 compared to 2007. Inventory levels for condos have averaged 18 months for 2008. Each month the data changes, and data must be looked at over a period of time to understand the market. Looking at only one piece of data cannot paint a true picture of the market. It's easy for one to take one piece of data and quote it out of context, even when the data is real. My offer to send you a PDF of inventory and absorption stats over time still holds.
Absorption rates are not guesstimates, but rather factual pieces of data. However, their usefulness depends upon taking data over a period of time into account. Making decisions or total assumptions on the status of a market based upon only one statistic is of like making an investment analysis or decision based upon the income on an income statement without a look at the expenses, the balance sheet, or a cash flow analysis. At November month end, inventory levels hit 49 months.
I heard someone indicate that Otteau suggested only aggregated county data be considered. I have followed Otteau for years, and recall Otteau stressing that local markets within a county can vary. When I advise clients, we look at local data, county data, and to a lesser extent state data. Discussions pertaining to national data are always part of my dialog w/ my clients, also.
There are also other factors that skew inventory stats for Asbury. Developers include some, but not all of their available units in the MLS, for example. Although the above are facts, not guesstimates, it is important to look at all influencing factors within a market, and not rely on isolated extractions of data.
Deborah Madey - Real Estate Broker
Peninsula Realty Group - New Jersey