Deborah,How did you figure 46 months' worth of condos in Asbury Park?

Asked by Maria, 07712 Sun Nov 18, 2007

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Deborah Madey, Agent, Brick, NJ
Sat Dec 1, 2007
Sorry I didn't catch this question sooner. LInette is absolutely correct in her response. Thx, Linettee!

I have a chart w/ the inventory levels for Asbury for condos and sfhomes for the last few years that provides the inventory levels and absorption rates month by month, They do fluctuate and, 46 is high, but it has been higher. I expect the numbers to look a little better in Nov and Dec. That stat quoted at 46 months was at month end October, 2007.

If I could post the chart here as a link, I would. But, I have it as a PDF file only. If you would like to receive a copy, I would be happy to provide it.

Also, a few of the new developments have some of their inventory in MLS now. That skews the numbers a bit.

Let me know if you would like to charts and reports, or if there is anything further I can do for you.

Deborah Madey - Broker
Peninsula Reatly Group
732 530-6350 Direct
2 votes
Linette Carr…, Agent, Wilmington, DE
Sun Nov 18, 2007
I am not Deborah but I assume that she took the number of condo's that are on the market in the Asbury Park area. The number of Condo's that sell a month right now. Divide that into the number on the market and voila! If you have 1000 condo and only 10 are selling a month it should take around 100 months to sell all the condo's that are on the market today.
1 vote
Deborah Madey, Agent, Brick, NJ
Sat Apr 26, 2008
Hi Maria,

Here's an update on the inventory stats for Asbury. Condo sales are up 25% in 2008 compared to 2007. Inventory levels for condos have averaged 18 months for 2008. Each month the data changes, and data must be looked at over a period of time to understand the market. Looking at only one piece of data cannot paint a true picture of the market. It's easy for one to take one piece of data and quote it out of context, even when the data is real. My offer to send you a PDF of inventory and absorption stats over time still holds.

Absorption rates are not guesstimates, but rather factual pieces of data. However, their usefulness depends upon taking data over a period of time into account. Making decisions or total assumptions on the status of a market based upon only one statistic is of like making an investment analysis or decision based upon the income on an income statement without a look at the expenses, the balance sheet, or a cash flow analysis. At November month end, inventory levels hit 49 months.

I heard someone indicate that Otteau suggested only aggregated county data be considered. I have followed Otteau for years, and recall Otteau stressing that local markets within a county can vary. When I advise clients, we look at local data, county data, and to a lesser extent state data. Discussions pertaining to national data are always part of my dialog w/ my clients, also.

There are also other factors that skew inventory stats for Asbury. Developers include some, but not all of their available units in the MLS, for example. Although the above are facts, not guesstimates, it is important to look at all influencing factors within a market, and not rely on isolated extractions of data.

Deborah Madey - Real Estate Broker
Peninsula Realty Group - New Jersey
0 votes
Francesca Pa…, , Monmouth Cty NJ
Sun Dec 2, 2007

I would contact an agent at Conover Agency or Cozy Realtors in Asbury Park. There are many properties that are not listed fon the MLS for sale, as well as upcoming auctions (that get about a day's worth of print advertising, but insiders know when/where), etc.

In my opinion, Asbury is saturated with Condos and that figure could actually be higher. But again, you are more likely to find a deal with using a local Asbury Realtor.
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0 votes
Francesca Pa…, , Monmouth Cty NJ
Wed Nov 28, 2007

Let's chat about Asbury. I'd luv to hear your thoughts as a buyer . . . promise I won't be giving u a sales pitch.

I did business last year in Asbury, have moved on, but continue to monitor the market for my investor base.

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