Case-Schiller shows Portland's real estate market peaking in 2006 which is about 2 years behind everyone

Asked by Mimi, Portland, OR Wed May 6, 2009

else. Portland didn't show a huge decline until mid 2008. Does that mean we are still behind in the return? Will Portland bottom out in 2010? 2011? We sold a house and bought a house in Feb 08 which seemed to be right before the crash. We're considering renting our home and purchasing another but since our current home was bought at more than it is now worth, we want to make sure we purchase a second home at undervalue to make up for it.

I just found this QA on Trulia and am so grateful for everyone answering all of my real estate questions!

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Dirk Knudsen, Agent, Hillsboro, OR
Wed May 6, 2009
yes we are in the Bottom. The Case-Schiller index while not entirely wrong do not work in my view in PDX and the tri-county area as a result of our very rare and leading edge land use planning. The top was Spring of 2007 in my estimation and that top lasted about 9 months. You bought the the tip of the Fall and we are still falling a bit more. I think we are in the trough....I would say 12 months....and next Spring things begin to move drastically back as all new housing inventory is going to be gone and guess what? Those faucets are closed. Gone are the days of rampant willie-nillie building. The new pace is going to be "sell one" methodical. Therefore the buying opportunity is now. Not next year. rates are high 4's now. They will not be next year.

The Obama admin is spend ing and printing way to much money. Look for 6-8% rates within 18 months. There is nobody that wants our bonds anymore and this is all going to come home to roost. You will look like a genius if you buy in the coming few months and lock down a 4.75% 30 year fixed. A 1% increase in interest will cost you $100,000 on a $450,000 dollar home over time... so be buyer. Be active. Steal somebody elses problem.

My 2 cents!


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Tom Inglesby, Agent, Portland, OR
Wed May 6, 2009
Mimi, the market peaked about June-August 2007 in Portland from what the stats show. Now is a great time to buy if you only look at interest rates. If you buy today at 4.6% vs. 6% last year you can buy about $80,000 more house at $300,000 with your payments being about what you would be paying if you bought a $220,000 at 6%. This is reason enough to buy. Many homes are off 20-30% which is very hard lower if you watch where you are buying. If you can qualify I would buy, because maybe you can lower your payments to the point that your savings will justify selling for no profit in a few years. Or buy and rent the house with the lower payments because it is better for cash flow with the low rates. Many options today with the low rates but the lending rules are getting tougher and who knows how hard it will be in the future since all the government has done is made it harder on all buyers but I am not saying that some of the new rules should of been in place in the past few years.

Tom Inglesby, Broker,
ABR,CRS,RECS, Eco Broker EA S.T.A.R.
Re/Max Equity Group, Inc.
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The Stephen…, Agent, Portland, OR
Wed May 6, 2009
This will continued to be one of the most asked questions in 2009. Since no one really knows, it is best to familiarize yourself with as many stats as possible. You can sign up for what I consider to be the best source of statics on my website below. I would be careful about listening to anyone who thinks they have a definitive answer to this question.
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