Home Selling in 94506>Question Details

marie, Other/Just Looking in 94572

tapering on 9/18

Asked by marie, 94572 Wed Sep 18, 2013

How will the deferred tapering by the Feds affect the Tri Valley real estate market? Is it wise to sell now in Sept. 2013, wait until inventory is low during the holidays or hold off until Spring?

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Hi Marie,

I absolutely agree with all of those who recommend placing your property on market NOW as its best to act on current information as opposed to an educated guess of the future.

While the Fed will continue purchasing agency MBS (mortgage loans) at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion a month, we just do not know when they will pull-back the reins of their intervention.

For now, this intervention works in your best interests by suppressing mortgage rates for your future buyer, and of course, you if you plan to finance a destination / replacement property.

These Aug 2011 to Aug 2013 charts for zip code 94506 should be of help for making your final decision.

2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 18, 2013
I can't speak to your local market but I think that now is always a good time to sell. As noted below, we don't have a crystal ball. The only thing we do have is the CURRENT market information to help us make decisions on whether to list/sell. As we've seen in the last 5-6 years, many external factors affect the real estate market that can't be predicted.

As far as trying to time the market goes, it seems that as the inventory drops in the fall/winter, so does the supply of buyers. You can wait until summer and the buying season, but then you have to compete with all of that extra inventory!

If you want to sell, my advice is to sell now.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 18, 2013
HI Marie

It is always difficult to predict what will happen in the future, cause we do not have a crystal ball.
However there are a couple of factors to consider :
a. The fact that FED has deferred tapering is positive for the housing market, since the interest rate will stay low.
b. However, in Jan 2014, the QM (Qualified Mortgage) rule will be in effect. This will effectively disallow any portfolio stated income loans. It will also make ARMs more difficult to qualify. This rule may therefore have a slightly adverse impact on demand next year.

Most experts believe, that the housing market will continue to recover next year.
I would agree with Bernard, if you were to list it, you should list it now, before the holidays.
Otherwise, if you believe the experts, you should probably list it in the Spring.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 18, 2013
As the fed has maintained the status quo it seems that we won't see any major increases in interest rates just yet but we all know that they will increase at some point.

Right now, there are more buyers in the market than sellers, although it is definitely cooling off. Yes, there are still multiple offers on well-priced nice homes, but often just 3 or 4 as opposed to 10 or 20 a few months back.

Buyers typically drop off after Thanksgiving so I would suggest listing your home for sale in the next month or so if you can. It is always difficult to predict what will happen at the start of a new year and at least you know there is an active market at the moment.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 18, 2013
Timing real estate markets is tricky business. When someone asks "Should I sell now, or wait until the Spring?", the answer is always "it depends". It depends on the economy, interest rates, consumer confidence, inventory levels, demand for housing, potential changes to tax law, war in the middle east, etc etc etc. I don't see interest rates changing dramatically given the weakness in the job market. We may see a surge in inventory in the Spring, or a drop off in demand if consumer confidence erodes, or we could see the market take off if the economy starts improving rapidly.

In reality, personal considerations have a lot of impact on when to sell, as they should.

If home prices go up, you would be smart to wait to sell. If home prices remain flat or decline, you would be wise to sell now. Which scenario will occur? If I was smart enough to know for sure I can guarantee you I wouldn't be answering questions on Trulia. I'd be retired in Hawaii.

Good luck with the decision!

Doug Buenz
The 680 Group at Alain Pinel Realtors
Alain Pine Realtors
(925) 463-2000
Web Reference: http://www.680homes.com/
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun Sep 22, 2013
As stated below - no one really knows. In reality, the market is slowing down - read more here:

East Bay Housing Market Cooling Off: Top 5 Reasons

So, in preference of holding and possible seeing the market deflect downward in a short-term correction, Realtors below are recommending that you sell now. It's the obvious advice, but is it correct? No one knows.

As for inventory being low, it's actually increasing right now for the first time in 18 months - I'm not anticipating much of a decline over the holidays.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Sep 19, 2013
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