Wwe have a 2 bath 3 bed home w / large lot, updated and within steps to stanton school.is it of favor to hold on until 2010?opinions please..thx

Asked by Mimi, 94546 Mon Sep 21, 2009

the 2010 real estate year?

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4
Hawkeye, Home Buyer, 94403
Sat Sep 26, 2009
Markets such as Vallejo may very well have bottomed, but the Castro Valley market very likely has not.

In the run up to the bubble (2004 - 2006), most folks who bought out that way did so using exotic loan products that had low payments for the first five years (e.g. option ARMS). When those loans recast in 2010 and 2011, the owners will find themselves holding mortgages that are significantly higher than the current market value of their home.

When the Option ARMs recast, it's not uncommon for the mortgage payment to triple. So you have the potential for a fairly sizable market of folks whose homes are worth far less than their mortgage balance and who are facing payment increases of up to 3x their current payment. Since these are generally conforming jumbo loans, they do not qualify for the mortgage adjustment/relief programs that banks are offering for conforming loans.

You can find more info on this issue here:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/09/20/…

Most analysts expect the wave will crash in reverse of how it was created. The last wave of Option ARMs were written in the far East Bay (San Ramon, Dublin Ranch), so if the predictions are true, those areas should correct first, followed by Castro Valley / Five Canyons, and moving Westward towards the coast and up the Peninsula. Note that trend is real, as Windemere and Dublin Ranch are experiencing the predicted effects; short sales and foreclosures dominate the mid high range in those markets.

Lastly, don't believe the realtor hype. Do your own research. And check the redfin.com forums, as they block any realtor advertising and tend to attract folks like yourself, who just want unbiased analysis and information without the RE sales pitch.
0 votes
Erica Starkey, Agent, Danville, CA
Mon Sep 21, 2009
Mimi,
You ask the million dollar question on every seller's mind. Right now the market in that area is fairly strong compared to what we've seen over the last year, so if you are looking to find something in the next 6-12 months I would think about acting sooner rather than later. If you are looking to get the price you may have had a few years ago, I would stay put longer than 2010. The market is correcting, but I don't expect we're going to see anywhere near those prices for a long time. Let me know if there's anything I can do to help.
Best,
Erica

Erica Jones Starkey
Broker, Co-Founder
DRE# 01503540
JSCA Real Estate Group
Providing Superior Solutions for Your Individual Real Estate Needs
http://www.JSCArealty.com
office: 925.989.1613
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0 votes
Pacita Dimac…, Agent, Oakland, CA
Mon Sep 21, 2009
If anyone has a really good and accurate crystal ball, they may be able to answer your question with very strong convictions.

Castro Valley is always favored because of the schools, so the value of the properties may have dipped slightly the last couple of years, but may already be stabilizing at the 2003 price levels. The current inventory of homes for sale is steadily shrinking -- which means people are buying.

Hopefully, we are successful in getting approval for the first time home buyer tax credit to be extended; and hopefully, interest rates will stay low. These are factors that helped stimulate the real estate market when many first time buyers decided to get off the fence to take advantage of the tax incentives and the lower prices.

If this is your primary home, and if you sell, won't you have to find another place to live? If your intent is to move up, then yes, you could sell now and take advantage of the market where a property you wouldn't have been able to buy then are now within your reach.

But what is your situation? Do you HAVE to sell? If you don't have to, then don't. Real estate market observers say that the bottom of the market was three months ago. While we don't foresee home prices rise with the double-digit % appreciation, we can at least hope for a "normal" appreciation between 2-7% depending on the location.
Web Reference:  http://www.PacitaRealtor.com
0 votes
The Medford…, Agent, Fremont, CA
Mon Sep 21, 2009
Mimi:

Personal opinion is that the market is going to increase in your area over the next 6 months. We will probably see a price correction at the end of this year or beginning of next year, and then a slow increase for the following six months. Those in the know have stated in just the past week that the anticipated wave of foreclosures many have been predicting for the fall WILL NOT likely happen.

There are still a large number of buyers out there and they have been pushing Castro Valley prices (at the lower end of the market) steadily upwards.

If you don’t need to sell, you might really consider holding a bit longer. However, if you are planning to move up, you might want to do it sooner than later. The longer you wait, the more the margin increases. The margin is the difference between what you get for your existing home and what you pay for your new home.
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