Is it a sellers market now? There are only 58 houses for sale in Rancho Penasquitos and there should be over 100. Has the market shifted?

Asked by Janet McCarthy, San Diego, CA Tue Apr 10, 2012

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Derek Rotzin…, , San Diego, CA
Wed May 16, 2012
Since there are so many buyers making multiple offers on the limited inventory, we are seeing homes easily going for more than what they are worth/listed for. When we start seeing this kind of activity, you bet it will shift to a seller's market! It starts at the lower priced homes ($200k and below) and work it's way up. The problem is many can't afford anything past this lower range so we will see how much it will really shift to a sellers market.
0 votes
Rod Powers, Agent, San Diego, CA
Wed Apr 11, 2012
Janet --

We work exclusively in PQ (Rancho Penasquitos) ....

Here is the actual market summary for Monday, April 9th of this week (which you can view all summaries on our facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/PQ.Real.Estate ... you'll find it all in the photo albums section) ...

1. Median Price: $547,500; up from last week (Apr 2) which was $515,000
2. Price per Sq. Ft.: $236 (Same as last week)
3. Avg Days on Market: 111; down from last week, which was 119
4. % of Properties that reduced: 26%; down from last week's 32%
5. Median House Size: (sq. ft.) 2125; last week: 1985
6. Buyer's Market: 24.2; Last week was 23.8 (An index above 30 implies a Seller's market) ... this index is moving closer to 30 every week!

Home sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks. While still a Buyer's market, prices seem to have been moving upward.We're a long way from the market's high point so we watch the index to predict how long this trend will last. If the demand trends continue, expect prices to keep moving upward, especially once we see a Seller's market!

Hope this is what you are looking for. If you have any other questions, or our team can help with your PQ Real Estate needs, please don't hesitate to contact us ... we appreciate your interest ...

-- Rod --
Serving San Diego Families for 30 Years!

The Powers HiomeSelling Team

Rod 858-444-2443 Seller's Broker
Sandy 858-444-2444 Buyer's Broker

PowersRealEstateTeam@gmail.com
0 votes
Chad Basinger, Agent, San Diego, CA
Wed Apr 11, 2012
Hey Janet,

I realize what you are asking as far as whether it's a "sellers" market and I am going to put a little different spin on it and say that it is always a buyers and sellers market (hence the word market..where two parties come together). Yes, I understand that conditions are pretty ideally suited for buyers with the cost of borrowing being near historical lows (this, of course, assumes one can actually get a loan) and the affordability index is at great levels. Having said that, if you are a seller and are looking to move up, it has also been a tremendous opportunity. Yes, your home may have declined in value, but the one you are looking to move up to most likely declined more in value. To me, that would mean it's a sellers market.

Now, in line with what you are really getting at, there is no doubt that inventory has dried up (lowest level in 3 years in San Diego). As someone who has goes to two different caravans per week in various zip codes, the fact that only 1-2 homes have been available to preview, as opposed to the usual 8-12, is a pretty good indication of inventory thinning out. There are many reasons for this and would require a lot more writing.

In summary, I would feel very comfortable supporting how this is both a buyers and sellers market.

Chad Basinger, REALTOR®, CPA, CFP®
858-997-3704
chad@chadbasinger.com
Web Reference:  http://www.chadbasinger.com
0 votes
Kari Shea, Agent, San Diego, CA
Wed Apr 11, 2012
Hi Janet,

We work in that market as well as neighboring communities. Here is our opinion on what is happening:

1. In the last year and a half, people saw improvement in the economy and started listing homes at an accelerated rate. Thus, we had an excess of inventory on the market. By no means had the real estate market improved.

2. At the end of last year, the listings that had not sold were either canceled or expired. Many sellers did not relist and are still waiting. Hence, we have lower inventories.

3. We are primarily listing agents. One statistic that still prevails is that 50% of the homes on the market have a price decrease at some point. This is the same thing we see with our own listings when the seller wants to list higher than "current market value".

4. In our transactions, the buyers are still dictating the majority of the terms. This is what we feel is the primary distinction between a buyers and sellers market. We are fundamentally talking economics, the law of supply and demand. With a low supply in some markets, demand seems high. In reality, it is the same number of buyers as before. There are just fewer people listing their homes due to economic reasons.

5. The true sign of a shifting market is new home starts which are still a record lows since the government started tracking the statistics.

We read an article that stated we will not have economic recovery until the housing market recovers. We, like many people in this industry, look forward to our industry being healthy again.

Best to you all,

Mark & Kari Shea
Shea Real Estate
Serving Greater San Diego
0 votes
David Cairns, Agent, El Cajon, CA
Tue Apr 10, 2012
In short, yes. I am seeing this same shift in East County San Diego. I would not call it a seller's market quite yet. To me, it would be more of a neutral market. The fact that many home owners who purchased between 2003 and 2010 are very likely upside-down. The normal spring sell and move is being hampered by this fact so less homes are coming on the market.
Web Reference:  Http://davidcares.com
0 votes
Cindy Davis, Agent, San Diego, CA
Tue Apr 10, 2012
Yes and No. The inventory has been incredibly low the past few months. We all have seen multiple offers rise and prices creep up in the low to moderate price ranges. Prices have not risen substantially though and the difficulty getting loans still exists for buyers. The buyers that are out there still expect quality properies and low prices.

What makes you say 'there should be over 100' homes in Rancho Penasquitos? Curious where that 'should' came from.

The example you provided is just one micro market in a large county with many micro markets. Inventory is indeed low...I' m just not sure that we are at a shift yet.
0 votes
Jeannie Thom…, Agent, La Jolla, CA
Tue Apr 10, 2012
Janet...Yes...It appears the good news is spreading. Downtown San Diego last year had over 400 units for sale...as of today there less than 168. The inventory is shrinking. The buyers are buying. But, we still have to be careful to not price a home too high..buyers are buying, but they are taking their time and doing their due diligence. Soon, we will get more sellers to put their property on the market for sale. Until then, we have buyers looking for property in frustration. Are you considering selling your home?

If I can help you..please feel free to call me at 858 395 7727...or visit my website http://www.TheRealEstateCat.com
Jeannie Thompson
Coldwell Banker - La Jolla
DRE#01021435
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