I prepare a monthly market analysis of the Phoenix real estate market to help my clients make educated decisions about when to buyer or sell. You can read my report at http://www.PositionRealty.com/Blog. The information used in this analysis report is directly from the Multiple Listing Service. The inventory is dropping and values are going back up which is good news for property owners. Timing the market is a difficult thing to do and the best time to sell or buy is when you are ready to buy or sell. There is no guarantee the prices will continue to increase because of outside economic forces. European debt crisis, new elections, etc.
You are correct about the issues with appraisal reports. I am selling a home now with a purchase price of $280K but the appraisal came in at $250K. There is a resent comparable sale within walking distance from the property I am selling that sold for $280K in June. The appraiser did not use this comparable and they are using comps from 6 months or more out. The buyers agent and I both know the property is worth $280K and now the buyer is coming up with an extra $30K to purchase the property. I used to be an appraiser so I know how to value a property correctly and this is incorrect but the appraiser refuses to change their value.
My advice to you is that you should only accept a cash offer on your property since approximately 30% +/- of the market today are cash buyers. Now, if you are in the higher price ranges, then this strategy might not work to your advantage since the pool of all cash buyers is lower with higher end homes.
There is a good chance you can sell your home and I would take advantage of all the buyers in the market now before something happens in the economy that could cause the buyers to dry up. If you are ready to sell, then you should try to sell your property.
Give me a call if you would be interested in hearing about what my company can offer. I am looking forward to hearing from you soon.
Sean Heideman, Broker
Not sure who is saying things haven't recovered that much - in most places they have, though the impact has been less on niche properties such as the horse properties in Desert Hills.
If someone already has comped out the house and the numbers aren't matching that $240,000 mark, best bet if you don't want to walk is to hang on for higher appreciation.
Another group of buyers would be financed buyers who can augment their loan and downpayment with the difference between appraisal and market value. Example such as below: Home worth $280K, appraised for $250K. Buyer puts up $80K down. $50K was for the 20% down payment, $30,000 is the difference. This can be worked out in a specially worded appraisal contingency during contract negotiations. It gives well heeled financed buyers an equal footing to cash buyers, and increases your pool of potential buyers.
I suggest getting a market analysis done by an agent to see if it might sell for what you need. Also have a look around your area and see what others are asking or selling for in the area. Put yourself in today's buyers shoes. If you are looking to buy again, would you pay this amount for this property? You might have something unique and hard to find that a buyer would want.
It may not hurt to put it on the market and ask what you need. Might get nothing or might just get what you need. Keep in mind, many agents won't list it if you need or ask too much based on current market.
The Phoenix market has improved in many ways and has a long way to go in others. To really understand how the market impacts you is to understand your property with some detail and then I could provide you with real answers.
Most of what I could relate on a forum like this regarding the Market would be with very broad strokes and not necessarily fit your situation.
You've raised a number of different topics, so it's hard to speak to it, but the market is unquestionably cyclical, as we say 'A property is only worth what a Buyer will pay for it, and what a Seller will sell it for'. I'm seeing that supported by alot of cash buyers.
That said, we continue to have an issue with appraisals since they are behind, and properties ARE indeed selling for above asking, an there are bidding wars. My last listing I received 35 offers on the property, all cash offers (except 2), and it was within 18 hours. There has definitely been a turn in the market, and there is definitely a shortage of inventory.
None of us have a crystal ball, we don't know if it will continue to go up or down... , we don't know if the banks are holding on to shadow inventory, we don't know what we don't know. But we do know what we're dealing with right now and from my perspective, it's certainly going in a positive direction.
Hopefully this info helps as you make you decision on your property. Please keep in mind that the Anti Deficiency law is still on schedule to expire at the end of this year. If I can be of assistance, please call me @ 602-284-9822. Best of Luck. Joyce