January sales data for metro Atlanta is in.
Agents' comments below are correct for the most part. The stats for your area are much better than the overall metro Atlanta area. Based on the last 12 months sales data, there is anywhere from 4.1 to 20 months of inventory for resale single family homes under $300,000 & much higher for homes over that price. The lower the price range the better the stats . Average days on the market for under 300k homes range from 60 to about 90. This is all good.
If we look at just January's data that's also good. For residential detached home sales in areas 112 & 113 (South Cherokee east & west of 575) there were 87 closed sales. 472 new listings also came on the market thus increasing the available inventory. Average days on market for those sales was 84 west of 575 & 124 east of 575. While homes are taking longer to sell they are still selling. It is worth noting that there were also 274 listings that expired WITHOUT selling & another 80 that were withdrawn from the market without selling. Subtract that from the new listings & we have an adjusted 118 new listings. Many of these "new" listings are expired or withdrawn listings that have "relisted". Average sales price was $196,512 west of 575 & $255,421 east of 575. Sales price to list price ratio was 95.6% east of 575 & 92.5% west.
This was just posted on our multiple listing service this past Friday. It will give you an overall picture of metro Atlanta & it is not very good.
We are starting 2009 the way we left off in 2008. There were 2,520 closings for all single family housing in January or a decline of 24.3% from January 08. We would have to go back to January 1998 to find a month with less closings than we had in January.
There were 2,220 closings for single family detached in January. This is a reduction of 22.1% from the same year ago period & the 29th monthly year-to-year decline out of the past 30 periods.
The average sale price for all single family closings in January was $181,799. You would need to go back to February 1999 for a lower average price. Januaryâ€™s average is also $90,000 below the all-time high from June 2007.
The average sale price for single family detached was $185,294 in January. This is 23.5% below January 2007â€™s average, 35% below the all-time high, and 19.4% below 08â€™s average.
There were actually a couple of positive trends to report. There were 6,511 expired listings for all single family in January. This is a large decline from January 08â€™s total of 7,619 expired listings & the 5th consecutive monthly year-to-year decline.
Withdrawn listings also declined year-to-year for all single family. There were 2,404 withdrawn listings for all single family in January 09 versus 2,906 for January 08. This was also the 6th consecutive monthly year-to-year decline for withdrawn listings for all single family.
The year-to-year drops for expired & withdrawn listings are the direct correlation to reduced inventories. For the first time since statistics have been recorded, the inventory level of all single family was lower at the end of January vs the end of December. This was also the 9th consecutive decline for all active single family inventory at the end of a monthly period. This is the longest streak since records have been kept, but with the spring season approaching it will most likely be stopped at the end of February.
Days-on-market was 96.4 for all single family closings in January 09. This was the 4th consecutive monthly year-to-year decline & was also 7.4 less DOM than the same year ago period.
I am going to repeat what I stated in Decemberâ€™s year-end letter, as I feel strongly that liquidity in the markets is very important for 2009. â€œI believe resales will have year-to-year monthly increases starting at the end of the 2nd quarter with new construction following two quarters later or the end of the year. How much we improve will depend on how effective our government will be to improve liquidity and the ability to lend for our real estate industry. If our financial markets fail in the ability to fund and fund all-types (conforming, non-conforming, jumbo, etc) of mortgages, it will be a very slow upward turnaround.â€
Smart Numbers Â© 2009 Smart Numbers
This points to an upcoming shortage of homes in the under $250,000 price range & a significant increase in homes for sale over $300,000. Eventually prices in the lower price range will stabilize & start to rise as more & more buyers are forced by the economy to downsize & purchase in the low range. There will be less buyers in the higher price range forcing inventory & foreclosures higher & prices lower.
Bottom line, in my opinion, if you think you will have to sell in the next 3 to 5 years get your home in the best condition & get it on the market with a great agent ASAP to get the best price.