How much more is SOMA real estate going to drop?

Asked by Free123, 94107 Wed Aug 10, 2011

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Rob Regan & Ciara Piron’s answer
Rob Regan &…, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Thu Aug 11, 2011
If you ask 10 experts, you will get 10 opinions - and maybe one gets it right because they got lucky. The same with the stock market - economists, hedge fund managers, CNBC talking heads - they all have an opinion, but none of them know for sure. Similarly we agents don't know with certainty what the SOMA market will do next. We can just help you find, evaluate, and buy best property possible, at the best price given your circumstances.
2 votes
Greg Bryan J…, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Thu Aug 11, 2011
That is a hard question to answer, but I can tell you this there are several stress factors pushing the SOMA real estate prices down. They include the following

1) There is a fairly large inventory of properties SOMA
2) FHA Loan amount limits are declining in San Francisco to $625,500, from the current $729,950 limit soon. Many banks have already started this process, shrinking the buyer pool for more expensive condos
3) Tighter lending requirements require approval not only credit but approval of buildings based on number of owner occupied v rental, number delinquent in HOA fees, etc.
4) Less people have the money for the downpayments or are employed to afford house ownership in SF reducing the number of buyers.

Among all these factors they have been driving prices down. See Zip Code 94103 (the Zip Code for SOMA) on my website and you will see that the Median List Prices of Condos has declined to $484,000 from over $600,000 around September of last year.

My suggestion to you is to just continue to follow websites and data to see when the prices start trending up and when you start seeing a change in the factors previously mentioned. At that point you should see SOMA real estate start to appreciate.

Greg Bryan JD/MBA
Broker Associate
GB and Associates/McGuire/Urban Bay Properties
Cell (415) 640-4341
1 vote
Oggi Kashi, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 10, 2011
Here are some charts to help answer your question:…

The price per sqft has actually increase in the area for the past 2 quarters (the 3rd chart). Please let me know if you have any questions.

Oggi Kashi
Paragon Real Estate Group
CA DRE 01844627

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1 vote
Kristen Stue…, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Nov 2, 2011
Hi Greg,

Values and pricing trends in SOMA vary dramatically building by building. There are actually some buildings in SOMA where values are increasing! The Arterra, 300 Berry in Mission Bay is one example of a building where some owners have seen up to 15% increases from when they originally purchased.

Please be in touch if you would like to further discuss Market trends. I am a resident expert in the South of Market neighborhoods and am happy to give you additional information!

Kristen Stuecher
Senior Sales Agent
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0 votes
Paul Hwang, Agent, San francisco, CA
Sun Aug 21, 2011
If you get ripped off, it will drop a lot!

With Zynga, Twitter and Facebook all going public in the next year or so, 2012 could be a good year for SoMa South Beach.
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0 votes
Oggi Kashi, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Thu Aug 11, 2011

The Median List Price is totally dependent on current inventory of active listings for sale. It may not be an accurate representation of market value. Basically, if there is a high number of smaller units for sale on the market, then the Median List Price will be lower and similarly, if there is a great number of high-end listings on the market, then the Median List Price will be higher. For this reason I believe the Dollar/SqFt of recently sold properties is a much better representation of possible market value.
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0 votes
Lance King, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Thu Aug 11, 2011
Current economic crisis pushing markets down, I would not assume they will drop. Despite Greg's comments there is a ton of money coming into this area - and I've watched a bunch of new bars and restaurants opening in the area over the last 18 months I've lived in SOMA. And with interest rates ridiculously low it makes sense to look for deals now.

Our place is a good example of what you can get if you have a savvy broker/agent and wait for the right place. We could easily rent our place for $2K - $2.5K more per month than our mortgage, and I'm convinced we could sell for at least $100K more than we paid for it in Jan 2010.

We have dealt with a lot of properties in the area and as mentioned I live here, and we recently sold a place that another agent couldn't get offers on because of a different marketing approach.happy to give you a no-strings consult on salebility of your property - contact info is below.

Best Regards,

Lance King/Owner-Managing Broker
DRE# 01384425
0 votes
Sally Rosenm…, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 10, 2011
Dear Free123,

I do not think anyone can answer that question. A realtor can give you statistics on how much property has actually dropped over the past few years. No one can say when or if we have hit bottom. Are we close to the bottom, I would say yes. Is it 5% 10% or more? Who knows?

Interest rates are at an all time historical low, so it is a great time to buy. It is not the time to wait to buy hoping that prices will drop even more. People pay a premium to live in San Francisco. Many folks are buying REO and/or Short Sale properties which are popping up more and more in SOMA, South Beach, Mission Bay....I am closing on one at 88 King tomorrow (Thursday.) Are you in a place where you might have to sell due to a short sale or foreclosure?

If you do not have to sell, I would suggest you wait. But do watch the real estate market and the interest rates. When rates start to go up, people will be able to afford less. I believe the Fed said no change until 2013 so you do have time.

All Realtors should be able to give you a Comparable Market Analysis if you are looking to get an idea of a price for your unit for "today." Sales are computed for the past 3 months to get a price.

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