inna ivchenko, Real Estate Pro in Calabasas, CA

do you think, demand for housing will remain strong through 2013?

Asked by inna ivchenko, Calabasas, CA Wed Jan 16, 2013

Obviously, demand is nigh, supply is very low, do you think, this trend will remain through 2013? We see now that appraisals can be an issue....comps are bad, yet, buyers are willing to pay more bringing more cash to cover the difference...Any thoughts?

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Kawain Payne, Agent, Seal Beach, CA
Sun Apr 21, 2013
I sure wish I had the magic answer to this one.

Truth is, inventory is super low, and buyer demand is high. This makes for a long hard road for buyers and their agents.

I do not like to see market conditions being too one sided. We need a healthy balance in the market, one where buyers and sellers can benefit. I love selling Real Estate, but as an agent who works mainly with buyers, I have been going through the ringer!

Kawain Payne, Realtor
1 vote
Walter 'Skip'…, Agent, Brea, CA
Thu Jan 17, 2013
In my opinion, absolutely. Continued strong demand with limited inventory.
Good luck,
1 vote
Steve Ploetz, Agent, Carlsbad, CA
Wed Jan 16, 2013

I think it's important to look at the major economic factors: mainly, what does the job situation look like? As of December the unemployment rate was at 7.8% nationally. It has decreased but due in large part to the number of people exiting the work force. Plain and simple, people won't buy houses with stable income. Furthermore, if people on paper show good employment and income history but they are concerned about their company downsizing or the stability of their job they also may delay a move.

There is no question that the inventory has been extremely low in my local market (North County San Diego). I've met with multiple sellers recently and we looked at comps together, decided the value of their home, and then listed relatively high for negotiating room. Two of those properties (785 Hollowbrook in San Marcos and 13455 Granite Creek Rd in Sabre Springs) then went over asking with one cash and the other conventional buyers. The demand hasn't increased but with supply shriveling up it's driven prices high.

Inna, I completely agree with your assessment about appraisals being behind the frenzy curve. I spoke with an appraiser yesterday (on a property that my buyer wrote a full price offer on and it appraised $12,000 short) and he said that value and market value are two different things. If I'm selling a baseball card, the card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. If I'm selling a house and the buyer is getting a loan, it's not so easy.

I do believe that the market will continue to increase for several reasons. First off, the banks won't bring an incredible amount of inventory to the table all at once. It hurts their potential for income and I don't really believe the amount of inventory being held (the so-called "shadow inventory") is really as much as everyone says. The Fed has made promises of keeping rates low for the next few years and have recognized that that has really stimulated the economy. As the entry levels continue to be competitive and frenzy-ish, I expect the market will continue to be pushed (hopefully, more slowly) in a positive direction.

Feel free to call or email me directly to discuss this more.


Steve Ploetz
Century 21 Award
(760) 525-5917 cell
(760) 828-4499 fax

"If your ship doesn't come in... swim out to it."
1 vote
Ben Vorspan, Agent, Studio City, CA
Thu Sep 26, 2013
This question was asked a while back, and now we see that demand remained high for quite some time -- well into the summer.

We're finding that prices have stabilized and demand is starting to level off, as supply begins to increase.

The expectation is that prices will remain roughly where they are, hopefully interest rates will also remain low, and as we get into spring of 2014, prices will once again rise.

If you're thinking about buying, do it this winter! Prices will only rise once we get into 2014.
0 votes
Audrey Peters, Agent, Beverly Hills, CA
Sat Jul 6, 2013
It's still going strong and I think will continue to do so, as demand is high and inventory is still catching up. The other factor to note is that rentals have gone up so much that it is cheaper to pay the mortgage than to rent, and mortgages are easier to obtain as lenders have eased borrowing restrictions. If you are looking in Van Nuys or surrounding areas, call me 818-538-6508. I just sold a house in 11 days and above asking here.
0 votes
Ruth and Per…, Agent, Los Gatos, CA
Thu Jan 17, 2013
Hi Inna

Yes the trends will continue through 2013.

The issue is that in many parts of the State we had an excess of homes sold per month
from 2008 through 2011.

The inventory has been sucked dry, many sellers are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for
prices to go higher before the jump in.

Due to the continued shortage of homes its likely that many of our peers will be forced out
of the industry due to lack of homes to sell.

Good luck.
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0 votes
Phil Rotondo, Agent, Melbourne, FL
Thu Jan 17, 2013
Predictions are very difficult; especially about the future.
0 votes
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