13317 Misty Dawn Drive, 20171

Asked by Jimbo Fisher, 22030 Wed Mar 12, 2008

What would you offer for this house?


The list price is 469K, Same End unit 2 car garage town home next to it got sold for 430K in 11/07. FFX county assessment for 2008 lists this at 414K. I am confused and would like to make an offer but would like to consider the price drop (hopefully not a lot) in the next 2 years. Single car garage TH's are being sold for 360-370K in the same community.

Tell me what you would offer. (or) Am I just adding competition by giving more publicity to this home?

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Don Tepper’s answer
Don Tepper, Agent, Burke, VA
Fri Apr 18, 2008
Well, based on what else has sold and what hasn't sold...and that includes quite a few short sales...based on your your observation of what single car garage townhouses are selling for...your observation for what 13321 Misty Dawn sold for (you've done your homework!), that property might go for $399,000-$425,000. (What's your Realtor say?)

Forget about the county assessment. Assessments don't mean a thing, though it looks as though the county came pretty close this time.

Rana brings up a good point that it last sold for $443,900 in January, 2005. (It was listed for $439,9000.) So the sellers don't have much wiggle room.

It also depends on how much you like the house, how long you plan on living there, and whether (and how much) you're willing to overpay, based on your desire for the house.

I can't tell you what to offer. I can say, though, that I gave a range above where, reasonably, I'd think it might sell. And when you're making an offer, obviously don't offer more than is being asked. And keep in mind that while none of us has a crystal ball, I think the odds are that prices in McNair Farms will decline somewhat more. Whether the seller can or would accept such an offer is unkown (at least to me!). All I can say is: Give it a try.

Like I said above, you've done your homework; I doubt my numbers surprise you.

Good luck.
0 votes
Hi, , Virginia
Thu Mar 13, 2008
I used yahoo, with the address you have above. here is a link to a site I found
If this is true, I don't know the source, its says this house sold for $295,000 March 15, 2002
you can go to the county courthouse/clerks office and find the records to be sure.

13317 MISTY DAWN DR 3 2 2 SOLD $295,000 HERNDON 20171 TH 0.06 15-Mar-02

Lets assume that is the non-bubble price in 2002
Lets assume 4% average appreciation per year

$295,000 x .04 = 11,800
In 2003 the price would be
$295,000 + $11,800 = $306,800

$306,800 x .04 = $12,272
In 2004 the price would be
$306,800 + $12,272 = $319,072

$319,072 x .04 = $12,762
In 2005 the price would be
$319,072 + $12,762 = $331,834

$331,834 x .04 = $13,273
In 2006 the price would be
$331,834 + $13,273 = $345,107

$345,107 x .04 = $13,804
In 2007 the price would be
$345,107 + $13,804 = $358,911

$358,911 x .04 = $14,356
In 2008 the price would be
$358,911 + $14,356 = $373,267

A lot of people think that housing prices will drop to (or below) the 2002 level.
IF this house was really worth $295,000 in 2002 (note the big IF)
at 4% appreciation (yes, in the past houses went up in value)
this house would be worth about $373,000 today.

Personally I would not take the chance. Just a 4% drop each year is over $14,000 per year in lost equity, and some econmists are saying 15% drop over the next few years.

We know one thing that seems for sure. Prices are not going up anytime soon, so be patient, you are not going to miss the boat. It could take years for prices to go up again.

By the way county assessments don't mean much. that just determines your property taxes. most houses are or will be selling for less than the county assessment. In a few years they will re assess the property. Of course the county is not really going to like that number to go down, it means less tax dollars in their budget.
1 vote
Rana, , 20874
Thu Apr 17, 2008
on zillow you will find the prior sale history to be
Sale History
01/05/2005: $443,900
03/15/2002: $295,000
02/08/2000: $231,013 *

obviously you are dealing with the last owner, so doubt how flexible they will be willing to absorb the loss of having bought at 443 K and willing to selling you at 430K...

the matter of fact is, couple of years ago if you mentioned anyone this price they would stare you as if you are a lunatic, later this year or by next year things can get worse, even if market improves gas will not .... basically individuals will not be able to afford as much as they did in the past so definitely the price of home are headed for a sure drop,..... if you try to predict the relative midway number ...say 380 K you will still be hedging that the market probably would not go further south....
0 votes
Jimbo Fisher, , 22030
Thu Mar 13, 2008
Thanks. This is NOT REO/FC/Short Sale property. I called the sellers agent and its not. I also googled for it and it does not show up as REO/FC/Short Sale
0 votes
Hi, , Virginia
Thu Mar 13, 2008
It's probably a bubble priced place. It may be so new, you don't have 2002-2003 pre-bubble pricing estimate. It may be on one of the REO sites
googel reo, there are many

The reo site will give you the listing price the bank is asking for.

For example I saw a place (in the hampton roads area of virginia)
It was listed for $229,000 on the reo site
It was listed on the Remax realtors site for $254,000
I wrote the realtor an email about the mis match
2 days later, they removed the listing from the reo site $229,000
I seen the listing here on trulia.com. trulia give the past sales prices
if they have the information. In 2006 the bubble price was $279,000
so the bank is already willing to lose $25,000 to get rid of it
its a bit mysterious, on the reo site is was listed for $229,000
the bank was willing to lose $50,000 to get rid of it.
remember banks are greedy, they want to get top dollar also.
but right now the banks need money, not depreciating assets.
If you are patient, things will drop more, a lot more.
0 votes
Jimbo Fisher, , 22030
Wed Mar 12, 2008
I never said that I am going at it by myself. I would not definitely take the advice from the realtor to be 100% correct as they have an incentive to sell. Esp in this market, when its difficult to sell, their commission is less.

Is this place predominantly meant for (or)dominated by realtor's? I am seeing a lot of responses from realtors but nothing from Joe Bloggs like me.
0 votes
FrankyRealty, , Arlington, VA
Wed Mar 12, 2008
You should be working with a buyer's agent. What advantage do you feel you have by going it alone?
0 votes
Jimbo Fisher, , 22030
Wed Mar 12, 2008
Just to add more, I am not counting the unhealthy growth that all these homes racked up in the last 4 years. We had home values appreciate 20-25% in one year. Thats Horse Shyt. I am taking 2003 price as base price and a 5-7% increase consistently every year is what I think is a sane price. What do you folks think?
0 votes
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