When was the big northern California housing boom?

Asked by Jessica, 94114 Tue Oct 20, 2009

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Thu Oct 22, 2009
About half way through 2007.


Gregory Garver - Commercial Real Estate Broker
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Misha Weidman, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Tue Oct 20, 2009
Dueling statisticians!

Just a clarification on the difference between Jed's and my date of the height of the market: I use a three-month moving average of median values for my charts because it smooths out seasonal fluctuations. Jed also combines condos and single family homes for his numbers, whereas I track homes and condos separately. Both methodologies are equally valid -- just be certain you know what you're looking at.

The actual high for single family homes, according to my methodology was in May 2007, when homes reached a high of $965,000 (median).

Interestingly, the all-time high for condos/TICS occurred over a year later in July 2008, with a high median price of $776,125. You can see my chart comparing home and condo/tic values here: http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/07/22/surp…
Web Reference:  http://www.realdatasf.com
0 votes
Jed Lane, Agent, Petaluma, CA
Tue Oct 20, 2009
The height was in April 2007. I've published graphs on the sales in the San Francisco market on my Trulia Blog. The prices rose steadily here from 1997 when the median price was $299,000 till 2007 when the median was $800,000. In April 2007 the median reached $865,000 for single family and condos.
It has fluctuated down and up since then but right now it sits at $707,500 last month.

Check out my blog for more analysis and data. I track data and have historical numbers available for further analysis.
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Misha Weidman, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Tue Oct 20, 2009
Jessica: Of course there have always been cycles of boom and bust. I track San Francisco specifically (I see you are apparently in my zip code!) and San Francisco's residential all-time high was reached in approximately June 2007 and home prices have fallen approximately 19% through August. You can see a chart tracking percentage change from all-time high since Jan 03 here: http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/09/30/meas… I have other charts that track change from all-time high for particular neighborhoods, like Noe Valley.

For a broader Northern California measure, you can look at the Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes 5 of the 9 Bay Area Counties. You can find that data at my website here: http://www.pegasusventures.net/wordpressblog/2009/10/13/dead… . I include a link directly to the Case Shiller Report.
Web Reference:  http://realdatasf.com
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