When do you think our inventory will increase?

Asked by Susan Schweiker, Carlsbad, CA Wed Sep 26, 2012

Buyers have a hard time getting offers accepted with multiple offers and such low inventory and so many short sales.

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9
Susan Schwei…, Agent, Carlsbad, CA
Sun Sep 30, 2012
I hear that prices will go down again this next year on the latest news reports, but that's not specific to the coast. One lower priced condo in La Costa had 6 offers, all higher than asking price, 3 of them all cash. I have a home of my own that had an offer of $495k but bank didn't want to pay commission to agent related to buyer so the buyer walked, we keep getting low low investor offers the bank rejects, had a ton of showings, but no other offer yet, than the low one...with this low inventory I can't believe we don't have another offer yet, 2561 SF built 2000, 3/2.5 $515k, small zero lot line w/patio yard with big spa on side, and shared cul de sac driveway in enclave of newer homes. I hope the market gets more inventory, and we get an offer for this home soon, MLS 110062333. It is unusual, when I started in 2001-2002 it was like this before the bubble but now the economy is different. And i don't think we will have another bubble - reports I read from our CAR say 3% increase a year at best so prices won't return to what they were pre-bubble until 2023, 10 years.
0 votes
Suzy Morris, Agent, Carlsbad, CA
Sun Sep 30, 2012
I will be interesting to see if sells increase their price as supply and demand models work in the long run. However, home owners are under water = no selling = low supply! It could be years before we see a normal market.
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Kevin Sander…, Agent, San Diego, CA
Thu Sep 27, 2012
Southern California..... I thnk we have at least 12 more months of this low inventory. Maybe longer.
I have a condo complex that I sell in often and there is nothing available in this 250 unit condo buliding, and I have 10 buyers ready to buy in there. Not to mention all the other buyers that want to buy in there that I am not representing. The inventory shortage will get worse before it gets better.

Kevin Sanderlin
Keller Williams Realty
Cell 858-212-4702
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Cindy Davis, Agent, San Diego, CA
Thu Sep 27, 2012
I agree with many of the below comments. Sellers are beginning to see prices creep up and many are convinced that next year will net them higher home prices. There is a low ebb between Thanksgiving and March typically so I don't expect anything will change until next spring and summer.
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Karen Guzik, Agent, Encinitas, CA
Thu Sep 27, 2012
I think what is keeping home sellers for putting their homes on the market is the fact that they may get more for their home if they wait a little longer, therefore, as soon as home prices show a significant increase, I believe we will see a higher inventory.
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Real Estate…, Agent, Oceanside, CA
Thu Sep 27, 2012
It greatly depends on which market you are in as well as the surrounding cities. Most foreclosures are foreseen to be released onto the market the beginning of next year (2013) from what we have read. However, this may not be such a good thing, nor an the answer Realtors have been wanting...

With the release of mass foreclosures comes lower property values as most foreclosures are going to be sold below value, this will undoubtedly affect surrounding homes and communities. We all want a great deal, but what are the consequences of such going to be? This mass release of foreclosures may affect us negatively in the near future.

On another note with mass foreclosures on the market, "investors" will be caught up with this surge, leaving standard sales and most short-sales (due to the length of time to get bank approval) to the traditional buyer. You will have a much better chance of your offer being accepted at the listing price without such competition. Again, this may have a poor affect on Seller's and the market as currently most homes, due to such offer wars, are being sold over asking/listing price. This is assisting in the increase of property values and the housing market overall, seeing these numbers will also help build stronger consumer/buyer confidence. We have seen transactions with offers $70,000 over asking, which is reasonable in the current market. This is a strategy that Realtors and Seller's have caught on to and have used to their advantage. If your a Seller your market is now as it is foreseen that property values will decrease again next year, if you are a Buyer, waiting a few months may save you a chunk of change.

But all information is bound to change or be affected with the multitude of variables due to expire or be released. Real Estate is tricky, you can pretend to know the future and get lucky or you may fall completely short.
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Susan Schwei…, Agent, Carlsbad, CA
Thu Sep 27, 2012
I've heard this April and May Fannie and Freddie will release some of their inventory.
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Tony Cannon, Agent, Carlsbad, CA
Wed Sep 26, 2012
This current demand will last at least another 6 months including usual seasonal slowdown between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. Maybe by the end of next summer we will start to get back to higher inventory. That is based on a number of factors, one of which is a slow down in investor buyers(as prices get higher, their returns diminish).

As a real estate agent yourself in this area, what do you think?
0 votes
Thank you Tony, I agree, hope you are right, the short term end of next summer for more inventory is better than a longer term forecast and recovery! When I first started we had this low inventory back in beginning of 2002, but it was before the bubble and crash, now I think it will go along for another few years, with very gradual improvement as we have seen, since it is all based on income and jobs as well in the economy. I have had several first time buyers recently, as well as a foreign buyer, family and friends with still a lot of short sales dominating this past year and now. I can't wait to see the market recover so we have traditional sales again, but we all have gotten better at doing the short sales and with REOs mostly held back, hard to say if they will be in our caostal area when they do get put on the market, probably more inland than here. After the election we will have more certainty also.
Flag Fri Oct 5, 2012
Frank Crowley, , Vista, CA
Wed Sep 26, 2012
It's anyone's guess, but, as all the indicators keep showing, the economy has turned around, people are spending money and empty stores are refilling. Builders are back to work; look at San Elijo Hills. My last sale, not in Carlsbad but in S. Cal, we received top offers with high cash considerations. As high offers become more frequent, more sellers will place their homes on the market....
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