What price range has further correction in prices to come ( in Scottsdale ). How long are we looking for decent correction to occur in upscale homes.?

Asked by Ben, Scottsdale, AZ Mon Apr 12, 2010

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CAgent007, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Mon Apr 12, 2010
Hi Ben

The Upscale or Luxury Home Market is a very hot market right now.

Here is some factual date throughout the valley luxury home sales (mainly Paradise Valley and Scottsdale):

The first quarter of 2009 (01-01-2009 to 04-12-2009) 172 homes sold over 1M.
The first quarter of 2010 (01-01-2010 to 04-12-2010) 254 homes sold over 1M.

The good properties are selling and some are selling over asking price. In fact I have seen some slight increase in areas of Paradise Valley and Scottsdale. The first market to correct itself is the luxury home market and even though it’s hard to tell when it will stabilize and begin to increase. I will say that most homes priced from 1M-3M are becoming easier to comp out and give a market value (three homes similar sold within six months). What I mean from this is that the market is not lacking any comparable sold and most home values are easier to comp out and establish its true market value. Lack of comparable was a huge issue about six months to a year ago. The market is showing huge improvement, more homes are selling (data does not lie), more homes are pending, and short sales are closing. Today if you find the right home, can afford the home, and the home comps out buying it. These luxury home values will not last and anybody who is waiting for the market to turn let me give you some insight its happening as we speak. Don’t hold back if you find the right home

Juan Pesqueira
Selling a Lifestyle
480-458-8007
Prudential American Associates
http://www.homes-paradisevalley.com
0 votes
Jeffrey Masi…, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Mon Apr 12, 2010
Dear Ben:

Good question.

Scottsdale home prices have dropped 20.2% in price per square foot for the year to year March 13 measurements.

March 2009 $233.88
March 2010 $186.55

The trend is down. Crystal ball for the future? No. Paradise Valley, Carefree and Scottsdale the top three in price/sf in the valley are all down a similar percentage.

After all it is not just real estate it is the economy, jobs, taxes, healthcare, war, monetary policy. The experts do not agree on these so I will not attempt to offer my opinion.

The facts. Home prices are down. The old adage is buy low, sell high. Investors are coming back into the Phoenix metro market buying homes for cash now. Does that mean we are at or near the bottom? I do not know.

If I can answer any other questions, feel free to ask. Maybe I can do a better job on the next one.

Regards, Jeff

Jeff Masich, Realtor
Arizona Homes and Land
phone: 480-556-0940
email: JeffMasich@ArizonaHomesLand.com
web: http://ArizonaHomesLand.com
HomeSmart Real Estate
0 votes
Stephanie We…, Agent, Gilbert, AZ
Mon Apr 12, 2010
Ben, in my opinion, all luxury homes. As long as the demand is low (illustrated in the graph below), I believe the decent will continue. Stephanie Weiss
0 votes
, ,
Mon Apr 12, 2010
Dear Ben:

Great question.

I attended an advanced class with Mr. Cromford of the Cromford report and he made a valid case for homes OVER 1,000,000 having further to go.

I started doing research for a couple coming in on Thursday to go look at homes UP TO one million last week, and when I went to do more research for them on Thursday ALMOST HALF were (AWC-C) Active WITH contract pending close.

I was surprised that many homes went under contract in less than a week.

Hope this helps.

Terry S. Smith
Broker Associate, DPR Realty
(602) 763-1858
ScottsdaleForeclousures@Gmail.com
http://www.ScottsdaleLenderForeclosure.com
0 votes
Laura Myers…, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Mon Apr 12, 2010
With a majority of homes 94-96% are selling under $400k the range above that still has room to adjust. The time it takes depends on demand and seller motivation. As one seller moves others must and so on. In addition the level of investor movement and the like will play a role as well. The key for a home buyer is to make a deal with the product they want to buy based on the condition they are in. Interestingly enough I have buyers in DC Ranch that we started at and they were offered only back up position in all the homes they liked up to $500k so the key is the proper research if you are needing to buy now...if you just want to consider it...wait until in makes sense...the only way to view your purchase is what is valuable to you at the time you need it.

Laura Myers, PLLC, CDPE,GRI
Keller Williams Arizona Realty

You can watch sales via my website at
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