Like every other investment, values will rise and fall over a long enough period of time. Prices in central Austin began a slow rise in the middle of 2010 as the inventory started to be bought up. By 2011, prices in several central Austin areas were beginning a 10% year-over-year increase in values, that in some areas has sustained itself to this day.
As you know Crystal Falls is on the outer fringe, in northwest Leander, and it's appreciation is not of the magnitude of the rise in central Austin. Because Crystal Falls is made up of several different neighborhoods, the answer to your question depends on which neighborhood you're speaking of.
Homes in the Highlands section saw noticeable appreciation over the last 5 years, with the majority of appreciation occurring in the last 2 years. The most current 3 year appreciation, year-over-year, seems consistently in the 5% range based on a pair-sales analysis that we do, not as strong as central Austin, but still quite respectable. Homes in this neighborhood range in value from $210K to $560K, and an average price of $335K.
Contrast the Highlands with Grand Mesa, where the home prices range from the low $300s to the high $700s. Higher priced homes tend to lag the market, and tend to appreciate less percentage wise, than homes that are priced more to the average of the market. In Grand Mesa, the appreciation has been considerably lower over the same time period, in the 1% to 2% range, again, driven by the lower market demand for higher end homes.
I don't support the assertion that Cedar Park nor Leander will outgrow Austin, that seems impossible, especially when the employment base is still centered in Austin. That said, the addition of the 183 Tollway, and the light rail running from the station just north of Crystal Falls, all the way to downtown Austin, is certainly helping the areas growth quite a bit.
All this said, there are no facts about the future. Historically, over any 8 year horizon in central Texas, for all home types except those above ~$1.5M, none of the data shows a loss in value for a purchase made in year 1 and a sale made in year 8, not even over the shorter time period of a purchase at the peak of the market just prior to the last recession 6 years ago and today.
Welcome to central Texas!