The wise-acker answer is how far over $2.5M?
In 2012 there were 175 sales of single family homes over $2.5M. Average Days on Market (DOM) was 67. But what did you learn. Nothing really.
Included in that is:
2901 Broadway that sold for $28.5M which was on the market for 2,054 days.
2808 Broadway that sold for $17M originally went on the market for $25M 505 days.
2835 Divisadero that sold for $6.05M listed for $5.5M and sold in 7 days
26 Joice that sold for $3.1M listed for $2.8M, sold in 12 days
44 Montclair Terrace for $2.9M, listed for $$2.7 sold in 1 day or
313-323 Cumberland for $3.5M, listed for $2.4M sold in 5 days 47% over asking
That's just single family homes. In San Francisco, saying over $2.5M is not really saying or asking much. Even in this market with the lowest volume inventory in over 10 years. Today there are 27 homes on the market over $2.5M. There were 57 condos sold over $2.5M in 2012. Highest sale price: $7.85M. Average Days on market for condos in 2012 over $2.5M: 79
I could ask, "How many beautiful brown haired women over 5' 5" are there in Miami? You'd want to know age range, ethnicity, thin, voluptuous... how tall over 5' 5"... What neighborhood of the Miami area am I looking? There are simply too many other variables.
It's the same with housing. If you have an unlimited budget? Does DOM even matter? In SF right now, if a seller doesn't get their price, they will come off the market, wait a month and do some fluffing during that time off market and come back. Today's inventory of Single Family homes in Districts 1-10 is: 167 (27 over $2.5M).
Somewhere in there your question is answered(I hope). If you would like to hone that question more specifically and have a frank discussion about the market, strategies selling or buying. Pop me an email or give me a call.