What do you think about the 2009 single family resi market in Fairfield County?

Asked by Jill, Easton, CT Tue Nov 25, 2008

In yesterday's Commercial Record, the prediction for the 2009 single family residential real estate market in Fairfield County is a 12% decline. The primary reason for this dire prediction is the job losses from the NYC financial services market. So do you all agree with this?

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6
Melissa Riley, Agent, Yorktown Heights, NY
Thu Jan 1, 2009
Jill, It's so difficult to predict. Many variables factor into pricing, including inventory amount, neighborhood, price range, number of buyers in that price range. It's simply not appropriate to make blanket statements about a market, because it may have little impact on your specific situation and search. I would suggest dealing with facts about each town and contacting a local agent who knows the market statistics thoroughly. I can tell you that their are price points that are active and others that are building in inventory. Feel free to check in with our market report that is sent out to our clients every quarter. It may help you in making decisions.
2 votes
Disgruntled…, Home Buyer, Milford, CT
Tue Apr 14, 2009
12% sounds like a conservative number to me. There is 18 months of inventory on the market, and rising fast. House prices are still too expensive compared to rents and incomes.

Look at what is happening in NYC right now with condo and apartment pricing. You better believe it's going to hit Fairfield county as well.

Unfortunately, where the west coast had their bubble 4 years ago and prices are starting to fall to reasonable levels now, the greater NY area didn't let our bubble start to deflate until fall of last year when Wall Street started to collapse. It's going to be a long and slow ride down, as sellers hold on to ridiculously priced homes for months and even years hoping for a bottom. The bottom is not going to come until houses are priced fairly based on incomes and rents.

Look at all of the people losing jobs and you can see why incomes aren't rising. There will be no bottom until incomes can start increasing, which won't happen until jobs start being created and not lost.
1 vote
Fred Romano, Agent, Servicing All, CT
Mon Dec 22, 2008
Looks like Christopher's "crystal ball" IS working. But seriously, we have at least another year of declining markets before we bottom out. If the job losses don't stop it's going to get much worse and take alot longer before we hit bottom.

It's a great time for buyers if they feel confident in their job, have good credit, and have at least 5% down!
Web Reference:  http://ctflatfee.com
1 vote
John the Bru…, Home Buyer, Connecticut
Tue Apr 14, 2009
Jill,

Check out this thread: http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/Be_honest_now_realt…

Three things must exist to facilitate an increase in the demand for homes such that this excess supply can be taken up. Prospective buyers must feel comfortable in their jobs, i.e. employment growth on a macro level must be positive or at least steady. Secondly, there must be expectations of income/wage growth. Lastly, there needs to be a reasonable prospect of medium to long term equity appreciation. In Connecticut, like most places in this country, the needles are pointing in the wrong direction. All of them.

Until supply gets down to reasonable levels (4-6 months) pricing will continue downwards at an increasingly fast clip.

Enjoy the show,
-John
0 votes
Christopher…, , Westport, CT
Tue Nov 25, 2008
I believe that 2009 will usher in a new market for Fairfield County. I believe those buyers sitting on the fence right now will start coming out into the marketplace and create a great amount of activity in the lower end of the market. As momentum builds in the lower end, we should begin seeing a revitalization in the rest of the market.

Although we may contine to have additional declines over the next six months and unemployment will most likely rise, current conditions make it a great time for credit worthy indivuals to purchase a home. My advice to homebuyers is that there is no time like the present to begin searching for your dream home. If you find it, don't wait to buy it.

Best wishes,
Christopher Rich
William Raveis Real Estate
(203) 768-5222
http://www.FairfieldCountyRealEstate.com
0 votes
Don Fabrizio…, Agent, Danbury, CT
Tue Nov 25, 2008
Jill,

I wish my crystal ball was still working...

We've been experiencing an approximate 10% decline per year in the area (this is a rough number, and each area town will have its own exact figures - some towns have been hit harder than others). From the looks of things right now, I see the market staying relatively the same as it is now - lots of homes to choose from and small price declines.

However, many factors can affect this: Will the recent lender bail out have any effect? Will anything be done with the bail out monies? Will the new president release an economic stimulus plan to help the housing market recover? Will the media relent in its persistent negative reporting of the market, which tends to create a self-fulfilling prophecy? Will job losses be as great as predicted?

Most important is to consider what your needs are. Do you need to move? Can you afford to buy/sell? If interest rates go up, will you then be able to afford to buy/sell? Are you upsizing or downsizing? (this market can be a good opportunity for those looking to upsize).

If this is about your personal residence, do keep in mind that your home is not simply an investment vehicle. Rather, your home is your home and the investment benefits are a secondary consideration - primary considerations are cost, affordability and comfort. Yes, for a personal residence, comfort - do you want to live there? Will this be your home? Will you be happy here? - is a primary consideration.

If this is about investments, then a careful eye should be kept on mortgage availability and pricing as well as an eye for below-market sales. Mortgage options for investors have become extremely limited, and this must be a consideration for all investors.
Web Reference:  http://www.FabRealEstate.com
0 votes
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