Oc B, I'm going to take a minute to go over this - once and for all. Dawn came on here spouting an article that showed charts and graphs - the latest of which was Feb. 1st. That data is even older because it takes a month or two to show up on the charts. So, that is pretty old. A LOT has happened since then - that has been elaborately described - first hand - by experts. If you don't like or accept the source, I can't help you.
You then followed quickly behind with an extremely vague "article" where a guy we've never heard of, from somewhere else, gives us his "opinion" and stating similar, but equally vague numbers of "stuff out there" somewhere. And you expect us to accept those two instances as authoritative AND current descriptions of the situation? The alleged shadow inventory. So far all I have seen are those two articles, both refering to a statement made by the owner of RealtyTrac - many months ago.
That, to me, is old news. Then, a bunch of agents - not just me - have flittered in and out of Dawns plethora of threads, giving mostly personal, first hand accounts of business as it is happening - today. So, what is it that you don't believe? That there are more buyers than properties - as evidenced by all the multiple offer situations? That the overflow of the multitude of buyers who DIDN'T get one of those properties won't be sufficient to absorb even a potential doubling of the REO inventory? Have you not read any of the local papers? The Register has been reporting these conditions.
So, you'd prefer to just choose to NOT believe Realtors who have come on here to provide answers - most of whom weren't trying to solicit Dawn's business. For your information, none of us get paid to provide answers here - we are trying to be helpful.
And a few of us are not afraid to take on someone who's primary intent is to make Realtors look bad, like Mr. Blue and his baited question of a couple of days ago. With 4 or 5 simultaneous threads, all along the same line of thinking, that's how I saw Dawn. Just trying to bait a local Realtor into admitting or agreeing that this market stinks and is doomed for years, when MOST of us know better - because we are experiencing a groundswell of activity - that your 4 or 5 month old stat sources won't be covering until about November.
So, I'm sorry if you have not been able to glean enough material from these discussions to accept that the articles you both offered might NOT be as relevant as you think - at least not in Orange County.
Both of you should get out a little. Seek some sources other than the totally negative bubble-bloggers. Check out some open houses. Check out the solds being reported. Check out the reduction of inventory of houses. There really is a lot going on - and it does represent a bottoming of our local market, where the median has been climbing for months now. Good luck to both of you.