To What Year In The Past Should Price Levels Be Scaled Back To Reflect Current Economic Realities?

Asked by Hoosier, 29401 Sat Jul 18, 2009

1999? 2002? 2005?

I'm hearing all of these.

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Suspectbuyer, Home Buyer, Charleston, SC
Thu Jul 23, 2009
Sherlock - I at least can justify my year with quantitative data. It's difficult to be an agent in this market now isn't it?

Why don't you try providing facts to support your position - I know, it will be very difficult so that's why you don't.

Your red herrings are comical so continue to attack the messenger versus the message because that is all you can do at this point.

I am ready to buy in this market but I don't like throwing my money away in an overprice marketplace. Simple as that.

Charleston has a long way to go before housing is at affordable levels so yes, there will be blood in the streets as housing prices implode.

Robin - This chart may make you relook your opinion on this topic.

2 votes
Teresa Cooper, Agent, N Charleston, SC
Sun Jul 19, 2009
Hello, Hoosier!

You've heard the expression "All Real Estate is local" I'm sure. That's just as true when you're trying to determine current values compared to historical values. For example, values on Pennisular Charleston near the colleges vary more seasonally, relative to the school year, and most have retained or increased in value over the last few years. In some subdivisions in Summerville / Charleston where the builder has filed for bankruptcy, property values have dropped below original builder prices of 4 to 5 years ago.

In most well-established, well-maintained neighborhoods, prices seem to have dipped to 2005-2006 price levels, and are currently rising again. Of course, there will always be short sales or foreclosures in these neighborhoods that are well below those market values / price levels, just as there will be exceptionally well maintained and improved homes that will be above those market values / price levels.

When pricing a home, you have to "look at the forest" and get the big picture, but you also have to "look at the tree" and evaluate the individual home on its own unique merits.
2 votes
Moveupbuyer, Home Buyer, Pfeifer, KS
Thu Jul 23, 2009
Suspectbuyer, I wholeheartedly agree that 1999-2000 is where prices need to be to be affordable in Charleston especially in the upper price range.

Appreciate you providing the info link to support your position
1 vote
Robin DiSaba…, , Sarasota, FL
Wed Jul 22, 2009
Different areas experienced the market going south at different times.

Here in Sarasota/Bradenton, we peaked about July of 2005 through that year and by February/March of 2006 we literally hit a brick wall!

Other areas did not experience the free fall 'till a year or two later.

So, here in Sarasota, I "benchmark" the current value to be what the Tax Office recorded Value in 2004.

Check your tax rolls, and go back a few years and see what the Tax Office recorded
on the property ...and their valuation is pretty accurate.

Too many owners used their homes as their personal ATM Machines when prices started skyrocketing...that is why so many owners are in the horrible situation they are in today...they voluntarily did this to themselves...taking out false profits, mortgaging 90 - 100% at the peaks, taking money out to buy other over-valued property...taking money out to buy now we are in this terrible economic mess!

And the lenders, in concert with the Government, encouraged this to happen...

So what do we do about this going forward?

We go back to basics...

I do believe that if you are a seller, and your house has not sold in 30 days, you need to adjust 3 - 5% every 21 days 'till you hit the level where an educated consumer feels the value in the property...That is the Market. Plain and Simple. It is not Rocket Science!

If you are a buyer, and it truly is a great time to be a buyer...low interest rates, plenty of inventory, plenty of motivated owners who need to sell... Do your homework...research what the value was in 2004 and work with your Realtor to come up with an offer that makes sense for you.

Above all, if you cannot to afford to buy a home with Cash, by all means, put down 20%, giving yourself a cushion...don't what you really can afford to pay...look at a smaller home....learn from the recent mistakes and there are some great deals waiting for you!

Robin DiSabatino
Michael Saunders & Company
Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202
cell: 941-685-5368
1 vote
Sherlock, Home Buyer, 29401
Wed Jul 22, 2009
Oh , suspectbuyer, you are a negative Nancy. You're entertaining... at least.

I still think the year is 1972. Why be so easy on sellers ? Let me guess, banks won't give you a loan, and an agent was at fault because once, or twice, upon a time you lost your home. Couldn't have been your poor choice. 1972 ? 1999 ? Cars should be free least. I'm buying and there are bargain homes at 1999 levels to be had.
1 vote
Suspectbuyer, Home Buyer, Charleston, SC
Wed Jul 22, 2009

Look at the historical trend and you will see that the marketplace started to overinflated in 1999.

If you buy a home at the 2005-2006 price range, then you would be making a big mistake.
One poster purports that in certain areas, prices are rising!!!! I challenge that poster to prove that statement.

I can prove my statements - Take a look at this objective data and then you'll see why some/most RE agents in Charleston don't have a clue.

Be careful, very careful in this marketplace for the next 2-3 least.
1 vote
Dave Edwards, Agent, Greenville, SC
Mon Jul 20, 2009
There is no set year or time to look to because each home, subdivision, and city is different.
1 vote
Sherlock, Home Buyer, 29401
Sat Jul 18, 2009
1972. I too believe in the ghosts of Christmas past ;-)
1 vote
J R, , New York, NY
Thu Jul 23, 2009
It depends on what part of the country you’re in. I’m finding many are back to 2002-2003 levels.

And Nancy, all good information from you.
0 votes
Foster Smith, Agent, Summerville, SC
Mon Jul 20, 2009
The short, generic answer would be 2000-2004.
0 votes
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