Okay, I was going to give a really detailed answer, but then realized you asked this question in November. So, I'll give the Reader's Digest version: Forget all the comps/analysis-type stuff, and make the best offer you can live with yourself for having made. Why?
1) You can't really overpay if you're getting a mortgage loan. Your lender will require an appraisal, and if the appraisal comes in low, you can walk or the negotiate the deal down (no penalty to walking if you have a standard mortgage contingency in the contract). This protection is built in to the process.
2) If you offer low and someone comes in higher, you may never get another chance. Sellers may or may not counter a low offer. Many, will just take the best offer that came along in a multiple offer situation.
3) If someone else gets it for more, you can sleep well know that it wasn't for you.
4) Price vs Cost - Sellers are concerned about price, because once they sell, that's it for them. Buyers are concerned about (or need to be) Cost, which includes the cost of financing today versus tomorrow... (sorry, this is the short version, so contact me if you want to get into more detail.)
Of course, you should really be dealing with a good, quality, knowledgeable, capable REALTOR; AND know whether he/she is working for you as a buyer's broker or for the seller as a sub-agent. Either way is fine, but don't be confused about that. It could cost you.
PS: I'd love to know if you bought it or what your status is. I've got great information to share with you if you're still on the market to buy (or sell).
Diallo J. Stevens, REALTORÂ®, CRS, CDPE, GRI, SRES, RECS, e-PRO
Licensed Real Estate Associate Broker
Professional Real Estate Consultant
CENTURY 21 Best, Inc.
Certified Distressed Property Expert
Certified Residential Specialist
Graduate REALTORÂ® Institute
Seniors Real Estate Specialist
Real Estate CyberSpace Specialist
e-PRO Internet Certified Professional
Toll Free & Fax: 877.892.6347
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"Getting People Ca$h and Keys!"