Seasonal trends in Phoenix... in the North, people tend to put their houses up for sale in the Spring hoping

Asked by Michel Brisebois, Vancouver, B.C. Canada Tue Apr 29, 2008

for a sale by early Fall or Sept., before school starts. Do you have a similar trend in Phoenix or is it slightly different because of the heat in the summer? Is the trend reversed with sales stronger in the cooler winter months? Or is there any pattern at all? Up here, the inventory of unsold houses by the end of August are usually problem properties: overpriced or major fixer-uppers.

Help the community by answering this question:

+ web reference
Web reference:

Answers

12
Steve Belt, , Scottsdale, AZ
Thu May 1, 2008
Michael-

This last year, inventory shot up immediately after the New Years holiday. Folks that wanted to avoid having their home up for sale during the holidays couldn't wait to get it listed in early January. Historically, Phoenix sees a buying surge around January 15, due to corporate hiring, again around February 15, due to snow bird buying, and then a steady building of buying from March all the way to July. August is a downturn from July, and by September, if it hasn't sold, there's probably a price/condition issue. From October-December there's historically a continuous decline in demand.

There are some agents I know that don't work during the summer, but only a few, and only very, very seasoned agents. The majority of full time agents I know are working year round. As well, the majority of Phoenix area residents live here year round. Phoenix has a strong employment base, and very few businesses are shutting down in the summer. The obvious exception being schools. I see the biggest difference in traffic once ASU lets out. 50,000 students, and who knows how many administrators, staff, and teachers that are no longer on the road is actually noticeable.
1 vote
The Urban Te…, Agent, Phoenix, AZ
Thu May 1, 2008
Hi Michael,

Sales trends in the Greater Phoenix market are a bit different than some markets. We begin our strongest sales cycle, historically, in May and the number of sold homes varies little through August. It begins to dip in September and generally takes a slight decline until February when it starts its rise again.

This trend was shifted in the 2004-2006 zestful market and was really crazy in 2007 with the media coverage of the sub-prime market and resultant foreclosures. We are seeing a slight rise in home sales in 2008 and will likely experience a continued incline though August as in past years. We won't know for sure how the sales trends will tally themselves until we get some more months under our belt.

Regarding the quality of inventory... there is no shortage of quality inventory in our market at this time. We find there are a number of good homes in every region at this time. We probably won't see a real shift in this situation for some time now as the inventory numbers are holding quite high and there is not real sign of change on the horizon. We are seeing about 1400 foreclosed homes hitting the market each week and this high number along with normal listing inventories is keeping the supply plentiful.
Web Reference:  http://www.urbanteamaz.com
1 vote
Marina Kocian, , Scottsdale, AZ
Tue Apr 29, 2008
Phoenix might get really hot, however we still see plenty of closings. Many people stays in town as well as realtors, this is where we live and I think we've learned how to deal with really hot weather. Xmas can get very slow. Phoenix has a great asset, its weather. It is expected to grow, public transportation is getting better. The best of all is that Arizona have great people. Our inventory is very high, which brings a buyer Market. Plenty of REO, Bank Owned, short sales, great prices. It is a good time to buy.
Web Reference:  http://ownyourhomeaz.com
1 vote
Molly Valcan…, , Phoenix, AZ
Tue Apr 29, 2008
As the other agents have said the market seems to follow the school calendar and there is plenty of inventory to buy. No worries about having just problem properties, overpriced, or major fixer-uppers come August. This is one of the best buying markets I have seen in awhile. I sell in Anthem, AZ and have shown many beautiful bank owned homes in Anthem Country Club. I know Beautiful and Bank owned don't usually go together but, these types of home are available in Anthem. Visit my website for more information on the Anthem Opportunity. In my opinion Anthem is the best value in the Phoenix area. http://www.AnthemAZGuide.com
Web Reference:  http://www.AnthemAZGuide.com
1 vote
Dan Mullarkey, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Tue Apr 29, 2008
The heat doesn't affect our market as much as you may think. Summer is the busiest time of year for home selling and things tend to die down towards the holidays, which is our slow time. In a normal market, this trend is quite pronounced but with our current situation, the time to buy is now. Bank owned homes are the best value around, with many of these still being in great shape. If you are interested, I can send you listings of these homes in any part of the Valley.
1 vote
Richard Dobb…, Agent, Scottsdale, AZ
Tue Apr 29, 2008
Michel, we have a similar trend here in the Phoenix area however I am sure it is not as pronounced as what you have. The highest selling months here would be June, July, and August and it is driven by the school calendar. Our winter months are still good with winter visitors making purchases at that time. I can send you the dta supporting my statments if you would like. I hope that helps.

Rick Dobbles
1 vote
Michel Brise…, Home Buyer, Vancouver, B.C. Canada
Sun Jun 29, 2008
Sorry, I'm not planning to rent something, I'm planning to buy something to rent out until I need it.

Been to Phoenix many times before and am familiar with the area. I'm concentrating in only certain areas of interest to us: Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler and Sun lakes. Got to be less than 1/2 drive from Sky Harbor airport. That's it.

Thanks anyway.
0 votes
Molly Valcan…, , Phoenix, AZ
Sun Jun 29, 2008
You mentioned that you would like to rent something suitable before buying. That is a great way to become familar with an area before buying. I work in the north Phoenix area, specifically Anthem, AZ. I have furnished home in Anthem Country Club that will be available this fall and winter. Anthem is a master planned community with 2 championship golfcourses and fabulous amentities. Visit my blog at http://www.AnthemAZGuide.com to view the area and the rental home I am speaking of. Let me know if you have any questions.

Molly Trecek
623 229-4196
Web Reference:  http://www.AnthemAZGuide.com
0 votes
Michel Brise…, Home Buyer, Vancouver, B.C. Canada
Sun Jun 29, 2008
We will be in Phoenix the first 2 weeks of August looking at properties in the Phoenix area. So far looking at the daily MLS, I've seen many reductions and prices are still soft.

I'm hoping we can find something of interest, suitable for renting until we are ready to retire and use the property.

Up here prices are still firm, up from last year, but the inventory is up by 20% over last year. Properties are not selling as fast as last year, but RE market still viable. Commodity prices are holding up real estate out West as more people move in for availability of jobs. Lots of jobs available up here, I can't get trades to do work on my house... and they price bids ridiculously high. Got two bids to install a new patio door, each wanted 2,500K... I don't think so. Still shopping for a better price.... I'm not paying 2k labor costs for a 4 hour job (if that).

Thanks for all the answers. It helps me a lot to get an idea on the Phoenix RE market. I see that the seasonal trend is not much different than up here in Vancouver B.C. Looking foreward to our visit.
0 votes
Joe Bourland, Agent, Avondale, AZ
Tue May 20, 2008
Statistics show the most homes are sold in the Valley between February and June then steadily decline through the winter holidays. Typically, we see a significant decrease in December and January.
Web Reference:  http://www.joearizona.com
0 votes
Debt Free Da…, , 85260
Mon May 19, 2008
The best part of the market is now through the end of July. August can be a little slow as the kids go back to school.
Web Reference:  http://GetPreQualified.com
0 votes
Michel Brise…, Home Buyer, Vancouver, B.C. Canada
Tue Apr 29, 2008
Thanks for the answers. As I suspected... winter tourist season is still good and you still have the school season issue like us. I know that Palm Springs CA does well in January as it is a tourist resort town.

In Vancouver, the biggest inventory choice is right now... by the end of summer the inventory gets quite picked over, only the unpopular homes are left, for whatever the reason. Few put up their homes in fall and winter as the weather is miserable and it rains a lot, so unless they have absolutely no choice... like career move, divorce, death, etc. Of course around Xmas is sheer desperation, and the low-ball vultures come out.

I just wanted to get an idea of the seasonal trends... I have time this summer, but I thought that perhaps the hot weather might curtail the market.... fewer owners there to show, fewer agents around, etc.
0 votes
Search Advice
Search
Ask our community a question

Email me when…

Learn more