Home Buying in Upper Dimond>Question Details

shiu227, Home Buyer in Hayward, CA

Is there a slowdown now that many homes like 2853 Carmel st in Oakland and many sellers are listing their homes over peak prices of 2007 ?

Asked by shiu227, Hayward, CA Sat Oct 5, 2013

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Hi,

The real estate market does ebb and flow, and yes there does appear to be some slowing. What I am seeing is a very two sided market. Some homes are selling quickly and well over the list price and others are sitting on the market.

Why?

1. Interest rates have moved up. When rates increase, buyers who are utilizing loans can find that their purchase price point has changed.

2. As always location has a big impact. Not only is the neighborhood important the location within the neighborhood can also be important. In the Diamond District where you mention you are looking if a home is close to MacArthur Blvd or is in an area with apartment buildings, they do tend to be less desirable than those homes located higher up the hill in the Upper Diamond.

3. Condition. A true fixer or even a cosmetic fixer may have less appeal than a home that is turn key. The turn key homes in the market do seem to often sell quickly. There are much less REOs and short sales on the market. These distressed properties had a significant negative affect on values of all the homes in the area. With less distressed sales, prices have increased.

4. Realistic List Price. The beginning of this year and into the spring/summer market was very brisk. Inventory was low and many homes were selling quickly with multiple offers and over the list price. There are instances where sellers are not realistic about the value of their home. A home is worth what a buyer is willing to pay. Selling can be an emotional and stressful time for many sellers, and it is sometimes hard to separate those emotions when considering the list price of the home.

The market has changed since 2007. Inventory is down significantly from the time and we are on what appears to be a recovery instead of heading feet first into the economic decline.

The number of listings in the 94602 area code (covers the Diamond and Glenview) in 2007 was 83. Currently there are 30. this is a 63.9% decrease in the number of listings. The number of sold homes is up 34.6%. The average sale in 2007 was $681,000 in August of 2007 in August of 2013 the average sold price was $669,000.

Timing the market is not an exact science and while there are indicators to see what the current trends are, they do change.

Hope that helps!

Lisa Cartolano
Alain Pinel Realtors
BRE 0171440
http://www.ViewOaklandHomes.com
http://www.ViewOaklandHomesBlog.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 7, 2013
It really depends on what you define as a "bubble" - the bubble we've just seen was built on a faulty market propped up by lending practices that were unsustainable. It's no surprise it popped. However, we're in a totally different place now - I'd recommend you read the following post:

Current Bay Area Market NOT A Bubble: Top 5 Buyer Recommendations
http://www.trulia.com/blog/carl_medford/2013/04/current_bay_…
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Oct 9, 2013
shiu772

Very thoughtful observations....

I'll remain optimistic. The last housing crash should have taught us a lot of lessons ----primarily on the lending piece of it. Essentially, people who can't qualify for a loan shouldn't have be approved for loans if all they cannot provide proof of income to show they can afford it.

Housing prices appear to be at the 2004 levels, so we're going back to where we were a decade ago.

Many buyers may be looking at the cost to buy vs rent --- and there are several calculators to give buyers an idea of what to expect. If someone is staying put for 5-7 years, and at the current interest rate, they may find it pays to buy. Here's one such calculator from New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calcula…

And Trulia has its own. http://trends.truliablog.com/vis/rentvsbuy-summer-2013/

However, it all boils down to what people want. They all have to live somewhere, so it's a matter of what and how they want to live. Sometimes, it isn't just about the cost of buying a house. Seems like to many people, homeownership is still an American Dream
http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home…
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 7, 2013
I'm the original poster. I'm very surprised that home buyers are willing to pay peak pricing for homes as if there was never a housing bubble before. My guess is they think home prices will go much higher to create another bigger bubble. They will buy now just so they can sell later for higher prices.

People seem to have forgotten about looking at prices when they bid for a house. My guess is somebody must have some money they got for free or something like that. Are people really that rich now?

If this is the case then maybe banking stocks should do very good in the next few years. I expect never to see Bank of America trading at low of $14 but maybe $30 soon.

I'm really surprised that people have forgotten house prices are leak levels and some went over. I also see many sellers who owned their homes since 20 to 30 years ago in San Francisco selling out right now. My guess is they want to get out of the housing market just in case there is another major crisis looming. People forgot our national debt is going to go much higher also. China also have one of the biggest housing bubble coming sooner or later.

I asked so many questions just to find out what others think of the current situation. Poeple seem to think everything is rosy again.

Thanks for all the discussions. It seems our government is going to create another housing bubble again. For example, look at Aluminum makers- many might disappear and many good paying jobs never to return. Just another bad news for America. So, you can see what the future holds.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 7, 2013
There are a number of factors contributing to the slowdown - but the market is in no ways dead as of yet. Here is a post that may be helpful:

East Bay Housing Market Cooling Off: Top 5 Reasons
http://bit.ly/193osVc
.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Oct 6, 2013
What we have seen is a multitude of issues that have resulted in a slow down in terms of price and offers. First the interest rate increase has reduced the buying power with 10%. That is big, as one could afford a home of 500K and now of 460K. Secondly, there are much less REO properties coming on market which kept some (area) prices down. Sellers who now think they can put any property on the market at any price. Not true. Even homepath (bank reo) seems to be in that category where the bank thinks they can list a property at any price, and it sells. Much more inventory on the market than 2 months ago. Just in Oakland there were 554 properties for sale. And lastly, Rockridge prices are now 1% higher than they ever were before. NOt the same in all area's, but in this case that area has recovered completely. So this is good news for buyers, who are ready to take action and are prepared with all the necessary tools. Interest rates are somewhat in a place where no one knows if they will move at any time, depending on the FED;s. There is a small window now as they have come down about 0.15%. Most bankers only see interest rate go higher.
Go for it.
Antoine
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Oct 6, 2013
Real Estate is now a Buyer's Market instead of a Sellers Market; very few multiple offers; and houses are staying in the market longer till offers are received. Sellers need to be more realistic with the Listing price;
Also; mortgages are more difficult to get; Buyers are qualifying for less; impact of interest adjustments and loan qualifications.
We will have more clarity as soon as US Fed normalises.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Oct 5, 2013
Because of the rapid rise in home values, some sellers may have thought their house is worth even more.....but they find out soon enough if that's the case when they set offer dates and no one comes....and eventually they adjust prices.

Home sales may have slowed a little bit, but historical data will show that to be the case this time of the year (Fall) anyway.

Funny thing...we were lamenting low inventory earlier, but by the time the sellers got the message, we moved into Fall where historically, fewer buyers are looking. Note, however, that serious buyers never stop looking (I've shown homes in hard rain, Thanksgiving/Christmas eves and day after)

Take a look at DQ News for other data and trends

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2013/News/California/Bay-Area…

The median price paid for a home in the Bay Area last month was $540,000. That was DOWN 3.9 percent from $562,000 in July, and UP 31.7 percent from $410,000 in August a year ago. Due to seasonal shifts in sales patterns, the Bay Area median almost always DECLINES from July to August.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Oct 5, 2013
I’ve been noticing a slower market than usual in the Laurel District of Oakland over other Oakland neighborhoods like Glenview, Oakmore, Trestle Glen and Rockridge. I think this slower selling timeframe is due to more inventory on the market now that sellers are trying to sell there home to get out from under their loans (16 homes around Laurel that are 3-4 BR). Additionally, we are coming into a slower market seasonally with the holidays nearby. This rate of appreciation I fear is not sustainable. I don’t anticipate deprecation, but I do see a leveling off of the market in the horizon. This is coming from my experience of selling the majority of Contra Costa and Alameda County, and having a good pulse on what the market is doing given the number of transactions and buyers I’ve been working with lately. This particular home in my opinion is overpriced given that it hasn’t sold yet and it’s been on the market for 59 days now. The average days on market in the Laurel District for 3-4 bedrooms for pending sales is 30 days and 23 days for closed sales (going back 3 months). This also shows that there are 16 homes on the market right now – that’s more than we’re used to. Although slower in the Laurel District, you still do see multiple offers on the homes that are priced and marketed well. http://www.MyHousingGuide.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Oct 5, 2013
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