It is as it has always been. Neighborhoods that 'hold value' most reliably have value retaining elements such as waterfront, golf course, nearby attractions, professional employment centers, gated, custom construction, and in top 15% of area prices.
If the community in question possesses none of these attributes, then a real analysis must be completed. This is what pros get paid for...the REAL analysis. Consult a professional near you. Ratios, trends, mobility, development, press and nearby graffiti can all influence value.
Forecasting, by it's very nature requires more transparency regarding your objectives. You can understand that if this is the LAST home you EVER intend to buy, the objectives are clearly different from the anticipation of a doing career development time (mid-management) in preparation for the bump up in six years.
Best of Success to you,
Annette Lawrence, Broker/Associate
Remax Realtec Group
Palm Harbor, FL