Do you think the new development condo, Madrone in Mission Bay is a good long term investment?

Asked by Michael Cho, San Francisco, CA Wed Aug 29, 2012

Let me know your pros and cons please. I am a multiple property owner in San Francisco/Bay Area.

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Peter T. Chin, , San Francisco County, CA
Thu Aug 30, 2012
I will give you some pros and cons, but as for the question of long term investment, this should be decided between you and your hired realtor after due diligence.

When I first saw Madrone, I was impressed by the low rise development in an up and coming neighborhood with the future site of huge UCSF Hospital and current and future life sciences there.

I am still impressed by the development, but there are things to consider (since you have already gotten a lot of pros from others, I'll just skip to the cons):

The development is built upon landfill that used to be an industrial site for many warehouses and such; the good thing is that new developments are seismically better designed than older buildings.

Also, you should look at "superfund" sites in the environmental hazards reports for the general area.

I like the outdoor swimming pool (this is one of the largest, if not the largest outdoor pool in SF), but this swimming pool would be used for only two month out of the year at most (this may be an expense issue with the HOA'S, but then many don't care).

Renters will pay a premium to rent at Madrone, but it will only attract certain types of renters; others will be turned off by not being in the center of the city and the vast construction noise going on.

Since it is a condominium and a new develpoment, it is not subject to rent or eviction controls; but, as you may know, all evictions in California have to go through a court process or jury trial.

I think it would be best for you to see if this development is a good fit for you; it is a good fit for some people and not a good fit for others.

Peter T. Chin 01866332
1 vote
Lizete Santos, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 29, 2012

Since you mentioned you own other properties than this one neighborhood may be a suitable form of diversification for you in the long run.

Here are my recommendations of the neighborhood:
-growing and attracting a pool of diversified population willing to pay a premium to reside here
-influx of retail and commercial space will only make this area more attractive
-offers easy access to public transportation & major freeways
-the weather is warmer unlike other neighborhoods
-walkable and close to a litany of amenities i.e. no car necessary
-there are limited new construction options throughout SF-this one will enable you to get in at the onset;

-other neighborhoods throughout the city that you could find similar units albeit not new construction
-does not offer the feeling of a traditional neighborhood i.e. Noe Valley, Cole Valley, Laurel Heights, Mission Dolores etc.
-similar pricing can also be found elsewhere

0 votes
Alina Aeby, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 29, 2012
Hi Michael,

Being a real estate investor, I am sure you like to have a diverse portfolio.

I personally own a condo in a newer construction not too far, in the neighboring Potrero Hill and yes, I believe the Mission Bay neighborhood has a great future ahead.

Things I will consider if I were you:

-are there any other residential developments going up in Mission Bay? The Madrone is the last residential lot, all the others have different zonings, but zoning could change....
-Overall San Francisco economy and Mission Bay economy- health, biotech and high tech industries, new hotel, etc...
-population trend and turnover
- rents level and availability( market saturation)
- consider all your expenses, such as HOA, property taxes and mantainance- mantainance should be minimal for a brand new condo
-how long you are planning to hold it in you portfolio- you mentioned long term, so that means more than 5 years.

As Realtors, we can only present our clients with hard facts and stats and be there to represent them when they are ready and already convinced that the chosen property is a good investment. It would be unfair and subjective to direct anyone toward a certain neighborhood.


Alina Aeby
Broker Associate
Pacific Union International
0 votes
Dan Healy, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 29, 2012
Hi Michael:

I'm of the opinion it's a good investment. If you're "bullish" on SF (and if you own multiple properties, you are), then I think you'll recognize that this area is where so much future development and appreciation will be happening. Great weather, great mass transit, easy access to downtown, and bayside location. I think with the UC campus and planned office space, there is a ready pool of qualified renters. Finally, as an investor myself, I think that this part of town would bring diversity to an investment portfolio, putting some of your investment profile in a new part of town.

I'm happy to share more thoughts on this with you.
0 votes
Matt Ciganek, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 29, 2012
Hi Michael-The Madrone certainly represents a solid long term real estate investment. Presumably, you would be renting this property. As it's new construction, it would not be subject to rent or eviction control, making the process considerably easier. With the biotechnology and technology business booming, that location is well situated to take advantage of the strong rental pool ready to pay market prices. As a new property, it will appreciate with minimal need for upkeep. Older properties will often require some work as time goes by.

I believe it is also important to keep in mind that for any real estate investment right now, the current interest rates offer a very good opportunity. The cost of borrowing is really attractive and should make real estate investors eager to put money to work.

I'd be glad to offer more advice. Feel free to contact me anytime. Best of luck, Matt Ciganek
0 votes
Matthew Goul…, Agent, San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 29, 2012
Hi Michael,

I personally would not be looking at a new construction building for a long term investment, but a building in an area that is more complete and which would be more desirable to a greater number of either renters or buyers.

For personal consultation on investment properties please give me a call,

0 votes
Rita V. Schm…, , San Francisco, CA
Wed Aug 29, 2012
Indeed it certainly is a great investment. The growth in Mission Bay is amazing if you look at the businesses surrounding that community. It encompasses the biotech companies, UCSF to name a few. With todays rental market and the cost of money - your intended purchase for Madrone would already be a positive investment. Good luck and if I could be of any assistance, please do not hesitate to reach out. Cheers~
0 votes
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