Well, the response from the real estate agent community so far is unanimous, and I have to say I totally agree. I don't think the credits will be extended either. I agree that we can't really AFFORD to extend the tax credits. It also seems to me that while the first time buyer tax credit has been effective in getting the first time buyers into the market, the replacement home tax credit has been a complete failure. I haven't worked with or heard of any seller deciding to sell in large part because of that $6,500. Now, for the folks who meet the criteria and were going to sell anyway, it's a nice bonus. But it doesn't seem to me it is broad enough or rich enough to induce move-up selling.
Unfortunately, I am starting to be very concerned about what will happen in the market after April 30, 2010. Unless lending requirements loosen and the unemployment picture gets much rosier, I'm afraid it may get worse before it gets better. That is something I'd be HAPPY to be wrong on.