If I purchase a brand new home now, what are the chances that its value will decrease during the next few years?

Asked by Gina Provenzano, 33626 Sat Jan 22, 2011

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Mark LeMenag…, Agent, Lake Nona Orlando, FL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
Gina, Buying a new house is in some ways just like buying a new car. Both decrease in value immediately after the sale. The difference is that the house will at some point start going up in value, while the car will continue to decline in value. The thing that made the market in 2003 to 2005 so unusual was that prices went up so fast that the new premium was usually totally over come between the time construction started and the owners took possession. In today's market you could expect that it would take 2 to 5 years for the premium to be recovered and it would be totally based on location.
1 vote
Phil Rotondo, Agent, Melbourne, FL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
The value of the house may decrease in value during the next few years; but the value of your home to you will always increase in value.
Web Reference:  http://www.321property.com
1 vote
, ,
Sat Jan 22, 2011

so many factors are involved to answer that question. Location, economy, condition the home will be in when that time comes etc.... It is a question that is, not only impossible to answer, but really unethical for an agent to answer. It is a great question, but you would really only be getting 1 persons opinion.
Web Reference:  http://www.TonyBrust.com
1 vote
BG, Home Buyer, Phoenix, AZ
Mon Feb 7, 2011

The TREND is your friend (as in stock market). If the TREND is in negative direction then there is no compelling reasons that it will reverse its direction in the near future. One thing for certain, you are closer to the BOTTOM than the TOP. To be "safe", you can wait for market confirmation of a positive TREND, then move in. Your purchase may not decrease and all you would have missed may be a ~10-20% higher than the absolute bottom.
0 votes
Gerard Carney, Agent, Spring Hill, FL
Mon Feb 7, 2011
First of all Gina, Congratulations on the purchase of your new home. As for the timing, awesome, you are at the bottom of the arc and things should get better with each year you own your home. You have purchased a home that no doubt will only gain in value with each year you own it,. Yes there are still a lot of foreclosures out there keeping prices down, but in the long run these homes will evaporate from our MLS and soon homes will start to go back up in price. As these prices start to correct themselves again, you will see a nice rise in value as the foreclosures become less! Four to Five years from now should show that you have made a very good investment, but be responsible and don't go refinancing like people have done in the past, this was part of the housing collapse. Good Luck and Enjoy!
0 votes
Michael Card…, , Tampa, FL
Mon Jan 24, 2011

I believe that you are in a good position buyin now while the prices and values are still low.
*** Please contact me if you are needing financing. Thank you

Michael R Cardoni
Mortage Banker
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
Tampa Fl
0 votes
Carrie Smith…, Agent, Tampa, FL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
You know being a realtor from the 33647 area code. This was the area of Tampa, New Tampa Wesley Chapel area, they were developing so hard in 2005, 06,07 and stopped with the market but here recently the builders are coming back. The neighborhoods that came to a stop are starting back up again....Grand Hampton almost completed, Seven Oaks starting to build again, Live Oak Building again, Terra Bella Coming Soon 2 months and Concorde Station just to name a few. I am super excited watching this happen. We have also been the #1 selling area code for the last six months!

Also, reminder Supply and Demand to anything rules all in business. But just a few numbers for you...If you invested on January 1, 2000- and sold on January 1, 2011 you would of gain 5.8% in the Dow, lost 12% in S&P, lost 34% in NASDAQ, but still would of gained 35.2% in Real Estate in Tampa or gained 45.3% Real Estate national average. It is seriously time to quit bashing real estate and inform the public the truth!

"Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership"
1. You can get a great deal
2. Mortgages are cheap
3. You can save on taxes
4. It will be yours
5. You'll get a better home
6. It offers some inflation protection
7. It's capital risk
8. It's forced savings
9. There is a lot to choose from
10. Sooner than later the market will clear
Wall Street Journal 9/16/2010


So I found your question interesting and then this was blog was just posted by Jeff Launiere, PA Agent in Tampa.

I recently went over the housing market statistics for all of Hillsborough County and talked about Real Estate being so local that even in a specific county each zip code can get very different results. That is true of zip code 33647 which is known as New Tampa in the Northeast section of Tampa along the I-75 corridor.

As stated in my Hillsborough County article, the best way to compare housing market statistics is to compare a single month versus the same month a year ago, or even other years. Often the media and others compare for example December 2010 with the previous month. Unfortunately, with month to month reporting the statistics are skewed by seasonal and holiday differences.

Therefore we are going to compare December 2010 housing numbers versus December 2009. We are also going to look at single family homes, rather than all types of housing.

Hillsborough County had a 11% increase in single family homes for sale, whereas in New Tampa it increased 20.5%. For buyers, having more inventory is great as it gives more choice and better negotiating power, whereas for the home sellers it may require them to lower their asking price, or give more incentives such as seller paid closing costs to get their home sold, as more inventory generally pushes home prices lower.

For homes going under contract we had an increase of 30% in Hillsborough County, whereas New Tampa had an incredible 49% increase. Since these are the homes that will be the future closed sales, this bodes well for the coming months sales numbers.

For closed sales Hillsborough County had a year over year increase of 8.5%, while in New Tampa the closed home sales were flat with the same number of homes sold, year over year.

Overall in Hillsborough County there are approximately 8 months of inventory which is about the same year over year, 2010 versus 2009. In New Tampa the months of inventory is 6 months which is good, however at the same time in 2009 there was only 5 months of inventory. Seeing the 6 months of inventory looks great, taking the numbers in context of the year over year numbers is not quite as positive. This is not alarming and can be expected with the big increase in homes for sale in December 2010. And of course there was a huge increase of pended (homes under contract) of 49% which might bring the months of inventory back down again, at least if not too many more homes come on the market in the coming months.

The sales prices in Hillsborough County decreased by 1.1% over the past year. In New Tampa the sales prices declined 0.7% from December 2009 to December 2010, so the home values stayed just about the same over the past year.

With these numbers it is also important to remember that in December 2009, the Obama administration had the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit in place and many people were buying homes to get $8,000 from the U.S. taxpayers. Though the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit stole buyers from the future with loss of sales shortly after it ended, it appears that as 2010 closed out, home buyers are starting to come back in the market because the prices are good, rather than for an extra incentive from the government. Hopefully, more buyers will come into the market in 2011 and keep these numbers going.

It is important for buyers and sellers to choose a Realtor with knowledge of the market and the differences even between specific zip codes or down to the neighborhood.
0 votes
Alma Kee, Agent, Tampa, FL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
Hi Gina,

One crucial thing to consider when buying a brand new home is the extra "Community Development District" taxes and Homeowner association dues. Communities with expensive CDD and HOA fees have been hit really hard in this market.

Also don't forget that the builders "asking price" may be negotiable (although their sales reps will tell you they are not!).

I would recommend going with a resale property in an established neighborhood, like Westchase. Some of the older sections are in the original CDD and in a few years the bonding portion will be paid in full so the fees will be dropping dramatically.

If you're not yet working with a Realtor, Westchase is my area of expertise.

All the best,
Alma Rose Kee, PA
Future Home Realty
13045 W Linebaugh Ave
Tampa, FL 33626
0 votes
Bill Carey, Agent, Charlotte, NC
Sat Jan 22, 2011

You can count on the property values decreasing for at least the next 2-3 years. An easy way to check is your state Realtor Assoc, Fannie Mae, HUD and Chamber of Commerce all publish yearly real estate reports. The reports will have details of home values and rate of appreciation or rate of decline. We have been and will continue to be in a declining market for the next few years.

One fact is that if the values change either go up or down will have no affect on you unless you sell the home. Enjoy your new home meet your neighbors have fun in Tampa.

Thank you,
Bill Carey, Broker/Realtor
Certified Short Sale Specialists
Cell 704-905-0740
Fax 866-343-5945
0 votes
Lawrence San…, Agent, Brooksville, FL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
I greatly agree with Mary G. Diaz. There are no guarantees in life. Buying a home in my personal opinioin is better then playing the stock market. Even if you just got back what you paid for the home, you lived there for free. The final answer is never really known until you sell and the ink has dried on the documents.
0 votes
Sally Grenier, Agent, Boulder, CO
Sat Jan 22, 2011
If we had a crystal ball and could predict market values in the future, we'd all be rich! But seriously...over the long term, real estate has traditionally been a great investment. But in just a few years? Hard to say.
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Trudo Realty, Agent, Chicago, IL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
It depends on your buying price, the location, and the credit market in coming years. Having said that, the odds that the value will decrease during the next few years is quite good: prices are still dropping in Tampa, on average, and there's little reason to suspect that your purchase of a property will stop the downward trend.

Having said that, there is no reason to suspect that value couldn't also rise in the next few years. If you're curious as to whether the drop will be evened out by a subsequent rise, well, your guess is as good as any. Anything that can increase in value also carries the risk of decreasing in value, and homes are no exception. Any predictions are nothing more than speculation, and you should be cautious of anyone making them.
0 votes
Mary Diaz, Agent, Tampa, FL
Sat Jan 22, 2011
Good Morning,

Like everthing in life, there are no guaranties.

Good Luck,
0 votes
Don Tepper, Agent, Burke, VA
Sat Jan 22, 2011
It really depends on market conditions, especially in the specific location of the home. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

One way to get some handle on the answer is to look around and see whether there's much inventory of unsold homes, especially new homes. If the builder has built 100 homes in a new subdivision and has only sold 15 in the last 6 months, odds are that the value will decline. And the price will keep going down until the builder's able to sell out all his homes. One tip: A new home buyer will seldom come out ahead if he/she is competing with a builder. The builder has too many marketing and financial advantages.

Nationwide, just in general--and this is only a guess--I'd say odds are about 50-50 that a new home purchased today will fall in price (or not go up) in the next 2-3 years. So, if you anticipate needing/wanting to sell in, say, 3-4 years, be very, very careful.

On the other hand, everyone needs to live some place. If you don't buy, you'll rent. And while there's nothing wrong with renting, a lot of folks feel that it's just "throwing money away." So the best thing to do is sit down and "work the numbers." What would it cost you, overall, to rent during the next 3 years? Then: What would it cost you to buy under a couple of different scenarios: Prices fall 10%, prices remain unchanged, or prices rise 5%? Then take current market conditions into consideration. That'll help you decide.

Hope that helps.
0 votes
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