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Asked by Ute Ferdig, Newcastle, CA Thu Oct 11, 2007

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Answers

7
Edward J Zorn, , Corona, CA
Fri Oct 12, 2007
BEST ANSWER
I have read the forecast, and it is typical CAR. The conclusions are unsupported by any analysis. I wish they would include some type of reasoning with these projections. Keep in mind that the 2007 Forecast predicted a 7% sales reduction. 2007 Reality: -23%+(the year is not over yet, this number will get worse). They are actually forecasting a median price increase (3.5%) for 2007. Do any of you feel like the prices in your area have increased? Are Buyers knocking down your Seller’s doors to pay over list? Here in Corona average prices are down 15% to 20% year to date. Last month more homes were sold at Trustee Sales than in the MLS (only 89 sales with 2,400 listings). CAR using a Median Price measurement is meaningless. With the subprime market eliminated, there are no more exotic loans for the first timers, or move up families. As a result the lower priced properties do NOT close escrow. The result: Higher MEDIAN price (the middle priced house of a group). If you eliminate the lower priced product from the numbers, the median always goes up. I see many more Bank owned properties, and more foreclosures than ever in the history of California. Do your own analysis using your local MLS data. Also trust your experience in your actual market, it is much more reliable than this forecast.
Web Reference:  http://www.ZECRealty.com
0 votes
Deborah Madey, Agent, Brick, NJ
Sat Oct 13, 2007
Hi,
Only an ex-Californian here, and never was a Realtor in CA when I lived there. However, I have met CAR individuals at Inman meetings, and I actually attended CAR a few years back. CAR is a strong association and more progressive and supportive than most.

The problem with ALL reports that come out of large studies like this one from CAR and also NAR reports is the data is dated by the time the report hits the streets. I have not looked at this report, nor would I even attempt to comment on the state of any particular market in CA, but I noticed the comments Ed and Edward made.

I agree with both to the extent that these types of studies have limitiations and must be subsidized with local updated data. The public and the media look for and to these reports as credible. As Realtors, and as members of our local MLSs, if we made more summary data avaialable to the public, we would be the credible sources. That concept applies to 'local communities' within CA or elsewhere.
0 votes
#1, , San Francisco Bay Area
Fri Oct 12, 2007
Yeah... I read it... so what?

CAR can only report statistics.

Who cares about statistics.

Please excuse me for being blunt.

CAR is not out in the mine field. They are reporting OLD news. MONTHS PAST.

How are you're sales doing in this market?

Are you a.) making a killing b.) just getting by c.) having a decent year or d.) dying on the vine and thinking about getting a job with UPS, Home Depot or possibly Tupperware?

Sorry, but the CAR does not have a grip on what we are really experiencing in today's market. They are not hands on and they can only report great things to keep membership up. If it drops, they are out of business.
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Ute Ferdig, Agent, Newcastle, CA
Fri Oct 12, 2007
Yes Sylvia, I agree with you. I experience this every day as I am in and near the Sacramento market and things are very different in the county in which I actually reside from the Sacramento market. I live in Nevada County, which has seen only very few foreclosures while Sacramento is flooded with them.
Web Reference:  http://www.TheMLSHub.com
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Pam Winterba…, Agent, Danville, VA
Fri Oct 12, 2007
Thanks Ute for the link.

I am here in Anaheim at the C.A.R. meetings and heard Lesie Appleton-Young speak on Wednesday. To sum it up it will be a bit bumpy next year but we will survive.

Back to basics for us old dogs and the new puppy's will learn the basics.

We will be finishing our business meetings on Saturday and will be bringing some new things home for us to do more business with.
Web Reference:  http://pamwinterbauer.com
0 votes
Sylvia Barry,…, Agent, Marin, CA
Thu Oct 11, 2007
Hello Ute:

Thanks for forwarding that on. No, I have not. Although upon reading that, one thing I want to stress is that there are so many micro markets in California, that we should be extremely careful when we talk about markets to our clients.

One of the big concerns we have is that the media like to dramatize things because that's how they can increase their readership. Since I have a statistics background, I know that there are many ways to present data and play with the information.

For consumers - When looking at any statistic, make a point to know the details and background of the numbers so you can get the real information. Take things with a grain of salt and ask expert for their opinion if needed.

Sylvia . .
0 votes
The Hagley G…, Agent, Pleasanton, CA
Thu Oct 11, 2007
Great info! Thanks for passing it along.
Web Reference:  http://www.cindihagley.com
0 votes
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