What can we expect in the ventura housing market in the next 6-12 months? I read

Asked by JAW, Ventura, CA Thu Sep 27, 2007

national real estate news talking about 2-3 months of depreciation. I have a hard time believing that will happen in ventura's unique market (i.e.: beach town with limited annual new housing development)

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Tami Winbury, Agent, Ojai, CA
Tue Feb 8, 2011
I'm wondering... How do you feel about the market in retrospect 4 years after asking this question? DId you buy or sell since '07?Just curious!
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Deidra Licata, , 93003
Sun Dec 2, 2007
I believe that we will continue to see more of the same housing trend over the next 6-12 months in Ventura. We are experiencing an increase of foreclosure activity in our area although our inventory of homes is remaining fairly steady. Yes we've seen a declining price trend from this period a year ago but I believe that Ventura does have a lot to offer and it will always be a desirable place to live. The mortgage market has tightened up since August but I anticipate another drop in the Fed rate in the coming months so fixed rates are becoming more attractive again. Anyone with the money to buy something can get a great deal on a house. The FACT is, we live in an incredible place! Our job market is strong, our schools are great, our weather is beautiful and there are so many things to do in our area! For those looking to purchase with the intent of holding the property for at least 5-7 years they will do fine with their investment. Owning property is ALWAYS better than renting and when this market turns around and prices go back up again (as they always do), anyone who buys in the near future will benefit from long term appreciation.

Deidra Licata-Realtor with Coldwell Banker
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Janis Calkins, , Ventura, CA
Mon Oct 15, 2007
Property values have been declining in the Ventura area over the last 6 months rather substantially...1% per month. It is mostly driven by two things: the amount of homes on the market, many of which are short pay or foreclosure situations which have driven the prices down and secondly, the tightening of the mortgage industry. I live and work in Ventura and have for over thirty years. Real Estate prices have traditionally risen and fallen as it did back in the early nineties when it began its last decline. Of course, this also was driven by many job layoffs which we are hopefully not going to experience this trend. Real Estate usually takes a turn around period of about five years to cycle. Right now now we are experiencing the decline and my own feeling is that it will level off sooner than it did in the previous cycle and remain level for 2-3 years before we see another rise. However, I do feel that prices are about to bottom out if they haven't already and it coud be a really good time again for investors to think about buying into the market. I don't think we will see too many times when prices are down, negotiating levels are awesome (due to the glut on the market and the financial distress of the sellers) and interest rates as low. So, if you have extra cash to invest, it might be wise to think about investing in the real estae market especially in a nice beach close location.
Web Reference:  http://www.JanisCalkins.com
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Bonnie Sterl…, Agent, Simi Valley, CA
Thu Sep 27, 2007
I honestly believe that what you read is optimistic for housing as a whole. All indications are that depreciation will last longer. Ventura is somewhat unique and that is supported when you check the link below for depreciation percentages reported for last month. Overall the VC is down just over 4% for Single Family homes but for your zip code the percent of change is a low 1% but condos are slipping in your area (they are typically the hardest hit by percentage in a down market). Ventura prices stay strong, stronger than other areas of the VC for just the reasons you mention but I think that if we see strong value declines throughout the county, it will eventually impact even your area. There are a lot of people who have weekend homes in the beach communities. If these homeowners encounter financial distress some of these weekend homes may end up foreclosed or sold by desperate Sellers. This is what is happening elsewhere and I dont think Ventura will be sheltered completely. Specifically, your questions asks about the next 6-12 months. Of course no one has the crystal ball but I think that typical winter slow down, coupled with high inventory, layoffs of major local employers (Amgen and Countrywide), the influx of lots of new foreclosure activity in addition to people who willl just have to sell for a variety of reasons, is going to cause some depreciation in home values, even in your area. To keep tabs, I have referenced dataquicks posting below.
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