Hurry up and tell me, off of the top of your head, how much more you save by waiting for the magic 4's instead of locking the rates available today? How much per month? Over the life of the loan?
If you're like most, you may not know. If you do know, and you've determined that you must wait for something below 5%, well, you're probably not too worried about waiting longer. You figured out early on that your refinance would only make sense at x%, and you know that if we don't arrive at that destination it is more financially beneficial to stay where you are.
My point is this: If you are market timing, you will likely lose more opportunities than you realize. If, on the other hand, you and your loan consultant have defined an "opportunity zone" or range of rates and payments that make your refi financially viable, you need to carefully weigh what's available right now and consider taking action. You touched on the key issue --- house value. In this market, 4.5%, if it ever materializes, does you no good unless your appraisal supports it.
Teddy Roosevelt once said, "In any time of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing. The next best thing is the wrong thing. And the worst thing is nothing." If you're indeed at a time of decision, seek out some good advice and make it happen.
Let me know if I can help.