How can you say overvalued.
you would have to know the market to say that. Would you say that Scottsdale homes are overvalued compared to Phoenix or Sedona has over valued properties. How about Flagstaff, there market has been very well insulated compared to other markets.
If you haven't heard it already "ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL" do you compare the US housing market to New Guinea.
It really doesn't matter what the price is if you are looking for the bottom of the market...likely you will miss it.
(Miss quote from Warren Buffet)
Predicting the bottom of the market is like perdition of the end of the world....some one will be right eventually.
Best of luck to you, hope you find the bottom or look back and see it.