Although it is true that there is a good amount of inventory, I would not classify things in Murphy as 'bad'.
Let's analyze the 97 homes that sold (per the North Texas MLS) in the last six months:
Average bedrooms: 4
Average bathrooms: 3
Average garage spaces: 2
Square footage: 3256
Acreage: .30 acres
Average days on market: 81
Average age of home: 7 years
At the 6-month analysis, Murphy was getting about 96% of their asking price as an average. Not bad. The average across most neighborhoods in Collin County are commonly 95-100% of list. I attribute this to a very high percentage of SAVVY real estate agents. Many of us have corporate backgrounds, and we price these homes to the market and we advertise them aggressively for maximum showing traffic.
If we look at the 3-month window, there are two things that stand out as different from the 6-month history:
1. The average days on the market is down to: 59
2. The average sold price is IMPROVED to 97% of the asking price.
How bad are things getting in Murphy? They aren't.
Definitely, there is a case to be made for negotiating the price of a new home down from the builder's asking price, if you feel it is completely out of line with the recent comparative sales. But, comps rule in DFW, and if another buyer feels that home is worth $430k post-recession, then it will be the home you lost out on. Only you can decide what you are willing to pay for it and how upset you will be if someone else buys it while you're trying to negotiate the price down.
Two great neighborhoods and I have very happy homeowner clients all over Murphy. I suggest you work with a Realtor and ask them to visit the website below for the Collin County Association of Realtors and run the Pulse Reports for Murphy to review with you.
Have a blessed day!