Hi, I’m Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia’s new chief economist. For the past year and a half, I’ve had an absolute blast unearthing digestible insights for buyers, sellers, and renters as Trulia’s housing economist, including reports on student debt, affordability, and where “bargain” homes are actually a bargain. Prior to joining Trulia, I was the director of the Real Estate Development program at San Jose State University.
As Trulia’s chief economist, I’m excited to lead a team of forward-thinking analysts in creating reports that combine innovative data analysis with straight talk on what’s going on in U.S. housing markets. You can find our thoughts, analysis, and opinions on the Trulia Research Blog, Twitter (follow me @TruliaRalph), and through the media.
Housing in 2020 – Polarity or Parity?
Not too long ago, housing left a sour taste on America’s palate. Prices were down, foreclosures were high, and the prospects of a quick recovery were bleak. We’re now five years since the turnaround, and our nation’s housing market is looking like a tale of two countries. Along what we call the Costly Coasts – markets in the pricey West and Northeast – job growth and home prices have boomed and affordability has tanked. In the Bargain Belt – markets in the Midwest and South – home price appreciation and job growth has been slower, but homeownership is affordable. For comparison, prices along the Costly Coasts have risen, on average, about 26% between 2011 and 2015, while prices in the Bargain Belt have increased just 14%. In the next five years, will the U.S. housing market continue to polarize, or will the Costly Coasts cool and the Bargain Belt boom? It’s a question we’re going to keep a close eye on as the recovery continues. The outcome has important ramifications for the future of the U.S. economy and housing policy.
At a micro-level, many first-time homebuyers may have also noticed a polarizing trend when it comes to finding a home. Starter homes are not only hard to come by, but they’re also flying off the market faster than middle-tier and luxury homes. In fact, 57% of homes priced in the lower-tier are still on the market after two months, compared to 61% for middle-tier and nearly 70% for upper-tier homes. This is yet another hurdle for those wanting to get their first taste of homeownership. Not only is saving up for a down payment and qualifying for a mortgage difficult for newbies, but starter homes are the most difficult to acquire. Will this trend reverse, or is difficult the new easy for first-timers? We’ll continue to dig-deep on what current housing trends mean for those looking to buy their first home.
What to Expect from Trulia’s Housing Economics Research Team in 2016
First off, Trulia’s housing economics research team had a fantastic 2015. We will continue to publish regular reports such as “Rent vs. Buy” and “Fastest Moving Markets.” We’ll also continue to throw in out-of-the-box insights, like million-dollar homes in San Francisco, turnaround towns, and pet-friendly rental markets. But more importantly, we’ll also dive into timely, but sometimes overlooked topics that are of the utmost importance to both house hunters and policy-makers. Stay tuned.
